Product Launch Plan for O2I’s RX Assist
Marketing/MKT571
Abstract
As the demand for health care increases, so does the demand for reliable prescription software. Thus Outsourcing 2 India’s (O2I) introduction of RX Assist, its premiere prescription software, enhances the ability of physicians, pharmacies, and hospitals to access critical drug-related information under general and emergency conditions. After considering factors such as market size and growth potential, O2I chose to launch RX Assist domestically in India and Canada internationally. Competition, pricing, and distribution channels are other key considerations leading the company’s marketing strategy. Beginning with the product description and culminating with a detailed capital budget, the marketing plan is one of the most important components of the marketing process. The aim of O2I’s product launch plan is to guide the marketing network in executing a concept from product development to product delivery. The plan that follows takes into account multiple elements supporting the company’s decision that RX Assist is a marketable product capable of creating value for O2I and its business consumers.
Product Launch Plan for O2I’s RX Assist
RX Assist, Outsourcing 2 India’s (O2I) premiere prescription software began as a marketing concept based upon an identified need to enhance prescription decisions. As a drug reference software product, RX Assist checks for drug-drug interactions, drug-allergy interactions, correct dosing, and adverse reactions. Thus significant advantages of RX Assist include prescription efficiency and improved patient safety. Identifying the target market and nature of the competition assisted O2I in determining the best product positioning strategy. India was chosen as the domestic arena based upon its market potential. However, to maintain its market share of prescription software, O2I recognizes the need to expand globally. Subsequently, the company chose Canada as the international market to leverage RX Assist. A strength, weakness, opportunity, and threat (SWOT) analysis proved to be an invaluable decision management tool in determining the market attractiveness, risk, and competitive advantage of both countries.
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O2I aligned its marketing strategy and objectives to yield target profits and growth for RX Assist. Pricing plays a crucial role in achieving those goals; therefore, O2I has carefully considered its business consumer’s demand schedule, the cost functions, and competitors’ prices. Additionally, the marketing communications mix facilitates clear and concise messages in both markets, which increases the product’s earning potential. Another key aspect of the marketing plan is the distribution strategy that relies on an integrated production and distribution network. Each business decision is guided by O2I’s financial budget, which clearly indicates that RX Assist is poised to transition from a marketing concept to a top-selling product in its domestic and international markets. The following product launch plan highlights each imperative aspect in building a strong brand and creating successful long-term growth.
Product Description
Product Positioning
Target Audience
As RX Assist is e-Prescription software the main target industry to sell the product is health care industry. Mainly hospitals are the target market where doctors can use the RX Assist to prescribe drugs and medical supplies to assist patients’ needs. As the software is well integrated with pharmacies, the software can be used by the pharmaceutical industries too, which will help the pharmacist to avoid errors in understanding the prescriptions written. Small clinics or private doctor practice place are other target businesses potentially buy the software. As the software is integrated well with the pharmacies, doctors will have less of a malpractice claim hassle and the office efficiency increases by the less documentation and increases patient safety. In India and Canada the health care facilities are funded and most of them are run by the government agencies that aim to improve the patient safety and increase the efficiency of the facilities and the physicians.
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Market Needs
Erroneous medicine harms patients, to reduce these mistakes physicians send and print prescriptions electronically with integrated systems used by pharmacies. Because of health regulation changes by the Indian government and the need to provide more attention to patients, the physicians in India are looking for smart ways to send and print prescriptions. O2I provides the necessary prescription software with fast and easy print out options; readily available prescription history with patient notes that lessen worries to rewrite the same prescription or incorrect diagnostic results. “China and India have led all world economies with gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates of more than 9% in recent years. This remarkable economic resurgence and future promise of India have made entering these markets critical to the survival and success of many firms” (Johnson & Tellis, 2008, p. 1).
Market Potential and Growth
The continuing rise of the economic growth rate in India demand that the hospitals and clinics in India advance technologically. This is the right time for O2I to introduce RX Assist. According to Indian health care (2011), “A US$ 36 billion industry today and growing at 15% CAGR, the Indian health care industry will be a US$ 280 billion by 2022” (Indian Health care: The Growth Story, para. 3).
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The medical tourism, quality consciousness, increasing awareness, standardization, and early break-even will help the RX Assist product to grow strongly with its foothold in India. The Indian market need for the software suggests there will be a 10% annual growth rate in the initial year, which increase to 20 to 40% in the following two years.
The health care in Canada country is changing like its neighboring country the United States where the rules and regulations are stricter in the world related to patient safety. As the Canadian government wants to control its healthcare costs and most of the hospitals in Canada are run by the government. The government strictly enforces stringent requirements to the physicians to go electronically and capture the workload involves in the creation of the prescription. Also the government wants to reduce the communication errors because of hand-written prescriptions and imposed rules to capture the prescription sold to patients. The solution to the requirement is RX Assist that is good in capturing the workload as well as keeps track of which patient received what prescription on what date.
Canada government also mandates to callback the patients in case the drugs are recalled by the manufacturer. RX Assist captures patient information as well as sends prescription to the pharmacy. This patient capture data is useful in the scenario by the pharmacist to call the patient to update about the drug recall and correct the erroneous condition. According to Industry developments (2011), “Provincial governments’ health expenditure growth in Canada is unsustainable, according to a report by independent research and education organization the Frasier Institute published in October 2008. Taking 10 years of historic data, the report finds that government health expenditure has grown at an average rate of 7.7% a year” (Industry developments, p. 29) . Moreover, the Canadian government is stable and embraces foreign investment with a growing health sector. As the Canadian health care expenditure increases, and the physicians are more patient safety aware to increase the quality of treatment to the patients with less market competition help RX Assist to penetrate the Canada market. The market research projects there will be 10% annual growth in the first year and when Canada government needs are satisfied by O2I it will increase its annual growth to 40 to 50% in the following years to capture all the Canadian provinces.
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SWOT Analysis of Domestic and International Markets
Companies perform SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analyses to evaluate its position in the market. SWOT analyses examine internal factors that are within its control – strengths and weaknesses. Those factors out of its control are considered external – opportunities and threats. SWOT analyses help companies gain the competitive advantage they need to succeed in today’s global market. O2I’s SWOT findings for both its domestic and international markets are detailed below.
SWOT Summary for domestic market of India
STRENGTHS | * Majority of workers are proficient in English * Strong employee mobility * Understanding of local needs, legal environment and cultural traditions * Openness to new ideas and opportunities * Belief in education as a contribution to India’s long-term competitive advantage * Strong employee mobility * Growth of professional managers * Low employee turnover – Indians have a strong work ethic | WEAKNESSES | * Diverse language and culture as there are over 1600 dialects in India * Culture and tradition play a major role and may be a basis for resistance to change * Division of the joint family and its support system |
OPPORTUNITIES | * Emerging entrepreneurialism * Indians returning to India from overseas locations * Foreign multi-national companies are the choice of companies for graduates in India * Market for talent is creating a resource of highly professional candidates for prospective employment | THREATS | * Strong governance that impedes entrepreneurialism * Non-ethical practices including bribery and corruption * Nepotism leading to promotions and awarding of key executive positions * Negative view of outsourcing to India |
SWOT Summary for International Market of Canada
STRENGTHS | * Highly skilled workforce * Low employee turnover * Openness to new ideas and opportunities * Low business tax rates * Strategic location between the North American marketplace and Asia * Access to entire North American market because of NAFTA (the North American Trade Agreement) | WEAKNESSES | * Canada’s work-life balance policies are overly generous – employees may lose touch with their corporate culture * Canada’s corporate culture is poorly focused and high in levels of conservatism and rigidity * Highly bureaucratic |
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OPPORTUNITIES | * Growing technology and healthcare industries * Canada welcomes foreign investments * 2nd lowest business costs in 11 countries per 10 month study of international business costs (About.com, 2011) * Financially stable and considered one of the world’s safest countries to invest in (About.com, 2011) * Lifestyle advantages | THREATS | * Non-compliance of Investment in Canada Act * Resistance to new products * Multiculturalism as it may lead to conflict and miscommunications in the workplace |
Competition Analysis
When launching a new product into a market – whether domestic or international, a company must analyze its competition to determine its potential for success in that industry. O2I’s findings on its competition in its domestic market of India include
* Doctor’s Desktop – A recently launched comprehensive prescription software for doctors as developed by Zeetech soft solution, a fast growing Indian software company. The software’s main feature and benefit is the ability to print prescriptions faster than manual prescriptions. Another benefit of this software is that it reduces errors in prescribing because of misinterpretation of handwritten prescriptions.
* eRX – MD Synergy has launched PRO solutions to help medical professionals in their daily administrative tasks including its eRX product that “takes the paperwork, guesswork, and wait out of filling prescriptions while increasing patient safety and your revenue” (eRX Your Scripts, para. 1).
As for its competition in its international market of Canada, according to ProPharm Limited (2011), ProPharm is “Canada’s leading pharmacy software and hardware technology products and services provider” (ProPharm, para. 1).
This software’s main advantage is that it links the prescription to a company’s accounting tables at the time the prescription is filled. This saves companies hours of paperwork.
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RX Assist’s advantage over the aforementioned prescription softwares is that it will also provide health care professionals with real time life-saving prescription interactions information. O2I has taken prescription software to the next level with RX Assist. The opportunity for gaining the competitive advantage is clearly present in both its domestic and international markets.
Marketing Objectives and Strategy
After conducting extensive market research, O2I has established three primary organizational objectives. The organization will first seek an ROI (return-on-investment) of at least 15%. This will provide an opportunity for the organization to accomplish its goal of an operating profit of over 499,818,200 INR (India Rupee) from the sales projection of approximately 4,998,182,000. Furthermore, the organization projects to increase its earnings per share (EPS) in excess of 10% per year. Next, to increase its profitability and productivity, O2I desires to increase its core client base by no less than 250,000 accepted applications within the next 12 months (four quarters).
By doing so the organization will achieve, maintain, and service a 10% market share of the industry on an ongoing basis. Finally, although the objective is to obtain 10% of the market share, the strategy is to increase RX Assist brand recognition by 75% within the various target markets, which will further support future sales.
The marketing strategy for RX Assist is primarily that it provides a value for your investment which yields a significant return. O2I heavily relies on the pharmaceutical industry, which is a research-and information-driven industry that relies heavily on research and development for new products and growth. Unfortunately for medical professionals, this fundamental goal to obtain information is costly and the results and information tends to continually change. When the previously stipulation information becomes available, it may become antiquated quickly and lead to risks and liabilities that could be offset by the RX Assist. This is the core advantage to utilizing the O2I services which makes this product very marketable. In order to accomplish sales objectives to take this benefit to the market, the organization would conduct direct sales and provide incentives to increase the benefits of the product.
Pricing
The pricing strategy for RX Assist is target return pricing. The target return pricing sets a price to achieve a certain return-on-investment (ROI).
Keeping the pricing strategy simple will aid in hitting the ROI plus monies established through the process.
Once the ROI is achieved RX Assist will be re-evaluated to create value-based and psychological pricing to increase the company’s revenue. These two different methods of pricing strategy will help grow RX Assist business. Determining when to extend the various pricing strategies will be an executive decision that should occur at the 12-month mark of the introduction of RX Assist to the marketplace. A committee should review the pricing strategies and make recommendations to the board of directors. Premature pricing strategy will place a burden on RX Assist to perform for stockholder interest. Taking one strategy at a time will ensure success of the product launch for RX Assist. The price per unit installed will be $25,000 to $45,000 per prescriber. Estimated annual costs to operate and maintain an RX Assist system (e.g., software licensing fees, technical support, and updating and replacing used equipment), range from $3,000 to $9,000 per physician per year.
Marketing Communications
The home market for O2I is India, which is a very traditional and proud culture, and Canada is the sample international market for this analysis. In order for O2I to launch their new product, RX Assist must initially connect and provide a compelling discussion that will overcome any gaps caused by the target markets cultural dissonance in its target domestic and international market. Fortunately for O2I, the product is being launched to a target market that is educated and that understands the common language of English. Therefore, the major issue to impact this portion of the marketing communications strategy is regarding the translations and utilization of the domestic language of the target market.
The medical and pharmaceutical industry tends to remarkably resemble in deficiencies. However, there is specific information that must be either accounted for or documented in such a way that it maintains its credibility. Therefore, when documenting how your product will resolve the deficiencies as defined by the target market, you must research for integrity and clarity while maintaining the balance of brevity. To offset the potential damage of deficient translations in marketing tools, O2I must summarize the benefits its products, services, and packages you offered and not be too specific or technical regarding the features, which should be presented by direct marketer or sales consultant.
Distribution Strategy
Logistics is another marketing term for strategic distribution, which if performed effectively and efficiently, provides a competitive marketing tool and advantage. The logistics for distribution generally occurs within the configuration phase of the distribution network, which tends to center around the response to the question of who, what, where, when. It is vital to the network to establish credible channel partners, retailers and wholesalers who act as intermediaries by performing necessary service-oriented duties and fulfillment between the organization and the clients. The RX Assist distribution strategy is determined mostly by the number of products being ordered, how and/or where the orders are retained as well as the client’s desires to obtain the service or product and the client interfaces.
RX Assist will be distributed through either an online data transfers or software development project which will be developed by RX Assist and interfaced with the organizations current online capabilities. If the organization has its own technical services division then the organization would provide the software through CD or DVD with technical support. Distribution should be performed through two methods: direct and indirect aggregators. If necessary, shipments should be made from remote distribution centers, such as FedEx or UPS.
Financial Budget and Forecast
According to AllBusiness.com Inc. (1999-2011), creating a profitable launch of a new product or service begins with following the six P’s of new product planning and budgeting. The six P’s include
1) Project the demands – determine whether or not a market exists for the new product or service.
2) Provide the specification – provide detailed specifications of your product or service to ensure accuracy in estimated costs for the product or service.
3) Plan the development – Work with the development team to ensure the accuracy of the estimates for the time and money involved in developing the new product or service.
4) Produce the product – Work with both development and production to determine the cost to produce the product or service.
5) Promote the product – Develop a new product budget plan that covers projected costs for public relations, web marketing, advertising, collateral, events, direct marketing campaigns, and channel marketing programs.
6) Provide the product.
Appendices A, B, and C contain O2I’s financial budget, marketing mix chart, and five-year forecast for its newly developed RX Assist product.
Marketing Research
Market Justification
Spurred by the introduction of the Internet, along with a global increase in the focus on health and wellness, consumers today demand convenience and accuracy in the information maintained and shared by health care professionals. As the market meets consumer expectations, solutions such as RX Assist will become important in the long term.
RX Assist is a product the pharmacy industry in India is in dire need of. In recent years, the pharmaceutical industry in India has seen a global boom. India has the most United States Federal Drug Administration approved manufacturing sites outside of the United States. Global health consciousness continues to grow. The need for pharmaceuticals will not be going away anytime soon. The number of deaths continues to rise due to accidental overdoses or combinations of prescription drugs. Pharmacists, doctors, and hospitals need this product. The Light Party (n.d.), “Accidental death from prescription drugs, even when they are correctly given, is now the fourth leading cause of death in the U.S.” (Health, para. 1).
RX Assist will help those prescribing and filling prescription drug orders. RX Assist will increase accuracy. Most important, RX Assist will reduce the opportunity for an error induced death because of the combination of two or more prescription drugs detrimental to each other. As marketers, O2I must take its corporate social responsibility seriously. RX Assist will achieve this objective.
Trends
Focus is increasing on health and wellness throughout the world. As medical offices and pharmacies develop electronic data processing systems to improve the efficiency of their marketing channels, technology becomes embedded into business as usual protocol, therefore normalizing the introduction of technology as a method of information sharing to improve efficiency in processing patient prescriptions.
Size of market
Domestically and internationally the market for this product is large because of global patient concerns. As the number of high-profile deaths increase because of prescription mistakes, this market is primed for growth.
Growth rate
This industry is highly competitive and offers high growth potential. This product will satisfy a previously unmet need for additional safety procedures. This will force competitors to innovate continually to maintain a competitive advantage, further supporting market growth.
Conclusion
After careful analysis of the channel strategies available, O2I decided to use a zero level channel based on direct sales and push strategy. O2I marketing team’s decision on target return pricing and an annual review will help the company successfully sell the product. O2I identified the changing environmental factors and justified the market needs to enter Canada and India as potential markets. Because of the potential harm of drug interactions, O2I has identified a market need for its RX Assist prescription software. Specifically, the company has chosen India & Canada because of its increasing economic growth rate and rising health care needs. After conducting a detailed SWOT analysis, O2I firmly believes that this product can create value for the organization and its potential customers. O2I asserts that RX Assist is the solution for reducing, if not eradicating medical errors related to prescription drugs. Evaluation of technology trends in both its domestic and international markets have shown significant increases in electronic technology via the Internet. O2I will focus on the use of the Internet as a communication channel. O2I recognizes that the best approach to promote its product is the informative advertising approach. The best way to connect with the target market is to inform prospective customers of the unique features and benefits of its product. Therefore, RX Assist has the potential to become a top-selling product for O2I in its domestic and international markets. It is O2I’s ultimate objective to have RX Assist become the number one resource sought by health care professionals worldwide.
Appendix A: Financial Budget
O2I’s RX Assist Product Launch FY2012 Budget | |
Figures in US Dollars | |
| | | | | | |
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | TOTALS | |
Public Relations | | | | | | |
PR Firm | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 | |
Press release development | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 40,000 | |
Press release wire fees | 16,000 | 16,000 | 16,000 | 16,000 | 64,000 | |
Press Kit Materials | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 60,000 | |
Review Program | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 20,000 | |
Analyst subscription/reports | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 40,000 | |
Press tour(s) | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 20,000 | |
TOTAL Public Relations | 86,000 | 86,000 | 86,000 | 86,000 | 344,000 | |
| | | | | | |
Web Marketing | | | | | | |
Online advertising creative | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 60,000 | |
Google Ad Words program | 8,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 32,000 | |
Yahoo ad program | 8,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 32,000 | |
Microsoft ad program | 8,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 32,000 | |
Search Engine Optimization (SEO) | 8,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 32,000 | |
Website development/updates | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 60,000 | |
TOTAL Web Marketing | 62,000 | 62,000 | 62,000 | 62,000 | 248,000 | |
| | | | | | |
Advertising | | | | | | |
Creative development | 40,000 | 40,000 | 40,000 | 40,000 | 160,000 | |
Print advertising placements | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 | |
VAR/Channel advertising | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 60,000 | |
Radio advertising | 20,000 | 20,000 | 20,000 | 20,000 | 80,000 | |
Television advertising | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 | |
TOTAL Advertising | 125,000 | 125,000 | 125,000 | 125,000 | 500,000 | |
| | | | | | |
Collateral | | | | | | |
Data sheet | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 20,000 | |
Brochure | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 40,000 | |
White Paper | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 20,000 | |
Demo | 2,500 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 10,000 | |
Web Content | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 20,000 | |
Sales Force “Cheat Sheet” | 2,500 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 10,000 | |
FAQs | 2,500 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 10,000 | |
Training materials | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 20,000 | |
Reviewer’s Guide | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 20,000 | |
Customer Evaluation Guide | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 5,000 | 20,000 | |
Competitive Comparison Matrix | 2,500 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 2,500 | 10,000 | |
TOTAL Collateral | 50,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 | 200,000 | |
| | | | | | |
Events (Launch, Trade Shows, Other) | | | | | | |
Booth space/venue | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 | |
Travel & hotels | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 40,000 | |
Signage | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 10,000 | 40,000 | |
Equipment rentals | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 | |
Refreshments | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 60,000 | |
Invitations | 20,000 | 20,000 | 20,000 | 20,000 | 80,000 | |
Webinars | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 60,000 | |
In-person seminars | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 15,000 | 60,000 | |
TOTAL Events | 135,000 | 135,000 | 135,000 | 135,000 | 540,000 | |
| | | | | | |
Direct Marketing Campaigns | | | | | | |
Creative development | 22,000 | 22,000 | 22,000 | 22,000 | 88,000 | |
Email to in-house lists | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 | |
Email to rented lists | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 | |
Printed piece mailing to in-house list | 55,000 | 55,000 | 55,000 | 55,000 | 220,000 | |
Printed piece mailing to rented list | 65,000 | 65,000 | 65,000 | 65,000 | 260,000 | |
TOTAL Direct Marketing Campaigns | 192,000 | 192,000 | 192,000 | 192,000 | 768,000 | |
| | | | | | |
Channel Marketing Programs | | | | | | |
VAR demo purchase program | 58,000 | 58,000 | 58,000 | 58,000 | 232,000 | |
SPIFFS | 77,000 | 77,000 | 77,000 | 77,000 | 308,000 | |
Retail end caps | 34,000 | 34,000 | 34,000 | 34,000 | 136,000 | |
Email to VAR lists | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 | |
Direct mail to VAR lists | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 | |
Marketing programs with retail partners | 50,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 | 200,000 | |
Market development funds (MDF) | 81,000 | 81,000 | 81,000 | 81,000 | 324,000 | |
TOTAL Channel Marketng Programs | 350,000 | 350,000 | 350,000 | 350,000 | 1,400,000 | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
SUMMARY | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | TOTALS | % of TOTAL |
Public Relations | 86,000 | 86,000 | 86,000 | 86,000 | 344,000 | 8.60% |
Web Marketing | 62,000 | 62,000 | 62,000 | 62,000 | 248,000 | 6.20% |
Advertising | 125,000 | 125,000 | 125,000 | 125,000 | 500,000 | 12.50% |
Collateral | 50,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 | 200,000 | 5.00% |
Events (Launch, Trade Shows, Other) | 135,000 | 135,000 | 135,000 | 135,000 | 540,000 | 13.50% |
Direct Marketing Campaigns | 192,000 | 192,000 | 192,000 | 192,000 | 768,000 | 19.20% |
Channel Marketing Programs | 350,000 | 350,000 | 350,000 | 350,000 | 1,400,000 | 35.00% |
TOTALS | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | 4,000,000 | |
% of TOTAL | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | 25.00% | | |
Appendix B: Marketing Mix Chart
Appendix C: Five-Year Sales Forecast
02I’S RX ASSIST 5 YEAR NEW PRODUCT SALES FORECAST |
Forecast based on annual sales of 50,000 units at a net profit of $36,000 per unit. | |
| | | | | | |
Base Annual Sales | $1,800,000,000 | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| | Worst Case | Most Likely | Best Case | Total | |
Probability | | 10.00% | 50.00% | 40.00% | 100% | |
| | | | | | |
Growth Rates | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 |
Worst Case | 0.00% | 2.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% |
Most Likely | 5.00% | 5.00% | 5.00% | 6.00% | 6.00% |
Best | | 6.00% | 7.00% | 8.00% | 8.00% | 8.00% |
| | | | | | |
| | | | | | |
| | | Forecasted Sales |
| | Seasonality | Worst | Most | Best | Weighted |
Year | Month | Factor | Case | Likely | Case | Average |
2012 | Jan | 1.20 | $180,000,000 | $189,000,000 | $190,800,000 | $188,820,000 |
| Feb | 1.10 | $165,000,000 | $173,250,000 | $174,900,000 | $173,085,000 |
| Mar | 1.00 | $150,000,000 | $157,500,000 | $159,000,000 | $157,350,000 |
| Apr | 1.00 | $150,000,000 | $157,500,000 | $159,000,000 | $157,350,000 |
| May | 0.80 | $120,000,000 | $126,000,000 | $127,200,000 | $125,880,000 |
| Jun | 0.65 | $97,500,000 | $102,375,000 | $103,350,000 | $102,277,500 |
| Jul | 0.55 | $82,500,000 | $86,625,000 | $87,450,000 | $86,542,500 |
| Aug | 0.60 | $90,000,000 | $94,500,000 | $95,400,000 | $94,410,000 |
| Sep | 0.60 | $90,000,000 | $94,500,000 | $95,400,000 | $94,410,000 |
| Oct | 1.00 | $150,000,000 | $157,500,000 | $159,000,000 | $157,350,000 |
| Nov | 1.50 | $225,000,000 | $236,250,000 | $238,500,000 | $236,025,000 |
| Dec | 2.00 | $300,000,000 | $315,000,000 | $318,000,000 | $314,700,000 |
| Total | 12.00 | $1,800,000,000 | $1,890,000,000 | $1,908,000,000 | $1,888,200,000 |
| | | | | | |
2013 | Jan | 1.20 | $183,600,000 | $198,450,000 | $204,156,000 | $199,247,400 |
| Feb | 1.10 | $168,300,000 | $181,912,500 | $187,143,000 | $182,643,450 |
| Mar | 1.00 | $153,000,000 | $165,375,000 | $170,130,000 | $166,039,500 |
| Apr | 1.00 | $153,000,000 | $165,375,000 | $170,130,000 | $166,039,500 |
| May | 0.80 | $122,400,000 | $132,300,000 | $136,104,000 | $132,831,600 |
| Jun | 0.65 | $99,450,000 | $107,493,750 | $110,584,500 | $107,925,675 |
| Jul | 0.55 | $84,150,000 | $90,956,250 | $93,571,500 | $91,321,725 |
| Aug | 0.60 | $91,800,000 | $99,225,000 | $102,078,000 | $99,623,700 |
| Sep | 0.60 | $91,800,000 | $99,225,000 | $102,078,000 | $99,623,700 |
| Oct | 1.00 | $153,000,000 | $165,375,000 | $170,130,000 | $166,039,500 |
| Nov | 1.50 | $229,500,000 | $248,062,500 | $255,195,000 | $249,059,250 |
| Dec | 2.00 | $306,000,000 | $330,750,000 | $340,260,000 | $332,079,000 |
| Total | 12.00 | $1,836,000,000 | $1,984,500,000 | $2,041,560,000 | $1,992,474,000 |
| | | | | | |
2014 | Total Year Forecast | $1,891,080,000 | $2,083,725,000 | $2,204,884,800 | $2,112,924,420 |
| | | | | | |
2015 | Total Year Forecast | $1,947,812,400 | $2,208,748,500 | $2,381,275,584 | $2,251,665,724 |
| | | | | | |
2016 | Total Year Forecast | $2,006,246,772 | $2,341,273,410 | $2,571,777,631 | $2,399,972,434 |
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