Weekly Review
August 14, 2010 Markets end flat
The Indian stock market ended almost flat during the week, amidst sessions marked by volatility, with the BSE Sensex and the NSE Nifty ending marginally higher by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. However, BSE mid-cap and BSE small-cap indices outperformed their large-cap counterparts by further extending gains by 1.5% and 1.6%, respectively, during the week. Factors such as strong numbers reported by Tata Motors and State Bank of India during 1QFY2011, lower-than-expected IIP growth at 7.1%, concerns over the pace and sustainability of the global economic recovery leading to mixed cues from global markets weighed on investor sentiments during the week. On the sectoral front, majority of the sectoral indices ended in green, with the BSE realty index and BSE Bankex gaining the maximum by 6.6% and 3.4%, respectively. However, the BSE IT index lost the maximum during the week, ending lower by 2.2%.
FII activity
As on Aug 06 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Net Cash (Equity) 829 (59) 614 193 449 2,027 Futures (72) 318 (282) (1,117) (1,068) (2,222) (Rs crore) Net Activity 757 259 331 (924) (618) (195)
Mutual Fund activity (Equity)
As on Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Net Purchases 516 601 569 1,054 780 3,520 Sales 839 477 957 940 919 4,132 (Rs crore) Net Activity (323) 124 (387) 114 (140) (612)
Realty index outperforms the Sensex
The realty index gained 6.6% during the week, outperforming the Sensex. The top gainers in the real estate space were Anant Raj (up 19.2%), Omaxe Ltd. (up 12%), Sobha Developers (up 8.8%), HDIL (up 7.5%) and Akruti City Ltd. (up 6.1%).
The Research paper on Maritime Students Perception on School Related activities
School activities are very important for the students and for the school. For the students, because they gain new skills and motivation. It’s a real chance for them to enjoy school and choose to do something they are really interested and passionate about, and therefore their motivation for learning and their motivation for their teachers and the school increase. It makes them relate ...
The rally can be attributed to the firm trend witnessed in stability in residential volumes over last 2-3 quarters across markets, with improvement in leasing activity. We expect realty stocks to outperform on the back of a strong project pipeline, well-capitalised balance sheet and decent execution skills.
Global Indices
Indices Aug. 06, 10 BSE 30 NSE Nasdaq DOW Nikkei HangSeng Straits Times Shanghai Composite KLSE Composite Jakarta Composite KOSPI Composite 18,144 5439 2,288 10,654 9,642 21,679 2,995 2,658 1,360 3,061 1,784 Aug. 13, 10 18,167 5452 2,173 10,303 9,253 21,072 2,940 2,607 1,360 3,053 1,746 Weekly (% chg) 0.1 0.2 (5.0) (3.3) (4.0) (2.8) (1.8) (1.9) (0.0) (0.2) (2.1) 4.0 4.8 (4.2) (1.2) (12.3) (3.7) 1.5 (20.5) 6.9 20.5 3.8 YTD
Inside This Weekly
Nestle – Event Update: For 1HCY2010, Nestle registered robust overall top-line growth of 19% yoy. We recommend a Neutral view on the stock (post weak 2QCY2010 results, Nestle’s stock has corrected ~7%) with a fair value of Rs2,804 (based on P/E multiple of 29x FY2012E earnings and in line with its five-year historical average valuations).
State Bank of India – 1QFY2011 Result Update: For 1QFY2011, State Bank of India’s standalone net profit grew 25.1% yoy and 56.1% qoq, which exceeded our estimates on account of better-than-estimated NII and lower operating expenses. Robust operating performance, with reasonable asset quality, was the key highlight of the result. We maintain an Accumulate view Target Price on the stock with a Target Price of Rs3,185. Tata Steel -1QFY2011 Result Update: Consolidated net revenue increased by 16.8% yoy, down 1.1% qoq, to Rs27,195cr. Group deliveries increased by 8.9% yoy to 6mn tonnes; however, they declined by 7.5% on a sequential basis. EBITDA/tonne for TSE increased to US $79 as compared to a loss of US $117 in 1QFY2010. Consolidated EBITDA stood at Rs4,433cr as compared to a loss of Rs30cr in 1QFY2010. Consolidated net profit stood We at Rs1,825cr as compared to a loss of 2,209cr in 1QFY2010. We maintain SOTP TP-based Target Price a Buy view on the stock with an SOTP-based Target Price of Rs702.
The Business plan on Nestle Crunch Marketing Plan
Executive Summary This marketing plan was created for Nestle Crunch to position itself in the next year to deliver at least $13 million in profit without increasing the budget by over $2 million. An analysis of the chocolate confectionery market will be analyzed to develop marketing strategies to implement to satisfy these objectives. situation analyses Market Size Crunch is produced by the ...
Note: Stock Prices are as on Report release date; Refer all Detailed Reports on Angel website.
Sectoral Watch
Indices Aug. 06, 10 BANKEX BSE AUTO BSE IT BSE PSU 11,793 8,533 5,639 9,574 Aug. 13, 10 12,196 8,776 5,514 9,675 Weekly (% chg) 3.4 2.9 (2.2) 1.1 21.6 18.0 6.3 1.5 YTD
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Focus Fundamental Focus | August 14, 2010
Nestle – Neutral
Event Update
Nestle arranged its first analyst meet in CY2010 to discuss its 1HCY2010 performance and future outlook. We present the key takeaways: op-line price-led Top-line growth driven by volumes, price-led growth missing: For 1HCY2010, Nestle registered robust overall top-line growth of 19% yoy driven largely by the 17.9% yoy volume growth in the domestic business and sharp rebound in export volumes, which grew 29.3% yoy. Exports rebound led on higher beverage exports to Russia: Beverage volumes grew sharply by 27.1% yoy driven by the steep rebound in export volumes (beverages constituted ~70% of exports), which have picked up due to higher sales to Russia (accounts for ~43% of exports).
Maggi continues ~20%+ growth rate, competition manageable: Prepared dishes (Maggi) registered a strong ~26% yoy volume growth despite the high base and rising competition (Horlick Foodles and Knorr Soupy Noodles) aided by well-positioned variants (Maggi Atta and Maggi Pazzta) and strong focus on LUP and PPP strategy Input cost inflation and staggered price hikes hurt margins: During 2QCY2010, Nestle’s overall raw material cost index increased ~10% yoy driven by the 26%, 13%, 39% and 5% yoy rise in the prices of fresh milk, skimmed milk powder, sugar and wheat respectively, while the prices of palm oil and green coffee declined 18% and 17% yoy, respectively. Management’s strong focus on maintaining high volume growth across categories leading to limited price hikes (price-led growth in the last three quarters stood at 1%, 2% and 5%, respectively) coupled with high input cost inflation led to a 263bp and 138bp yoy contraction in gross margins during 1QCY2010 and 2QCY2010, respectively. Going ahead, management expects good monsoons and improved collections at its Moga factory to help control inflation in the milk prices (key raw material accounting for ~34% of input costs), while correction in the sugar prices is likely to reflect in yoy declines by 4QCY2010. However, rising prices of green coffee and palm oil, up 3% and 17% yoy respectively, post 2QCY2010 will negate any significant gains from correction in other inputs. Moreover, management has indicated that it is willing to compromise on near-term margins to maintain high
The Essay on Thousands Of Dollars Price Truck Sale
Suppose that you are interested in buying a new GMC Sonoma pickup truck at a super weekend sale. You see a list price of $14, 500 on one particular model with some extra options, and you wonder what the dealer invoice price (cost for the dealer) is for this truck so that you can compare the sale price with the invoice price and maybe negotiate an even better deal. The following information is ...
Price – Rs2,805
volume growth and ensure long-term profitability via staggered price hikes. Investments to rise, guides for aggressive capex: Driven by robust volume growth, Nestle has guided for aggressive capex plans and has already committed ~Rs360cr as of 1HCY2010 (~Rs70cr for 1HCY2009).
We model in ~Rs425cr capex for CY2010.
Outlook and Valuation
While we continue to like Nestle’s long-term growth story (best play on food processing theme in India), we believe that Nestlé’s premium (100%) valuations to the Sensex (5yr average at ~80%) is at risk to negative surprises, which could emerge from: 1) gross margin pressures due to rising input costs, 2) competition in high-growth noodles category from HUL and GSKCHL, and 3) up-tick in ad spends. Hence, we recommend Neutral view on the stock (post weak 2QCY2010 result, Nestle’s stock has corrected ~7%) with a fair value of Rs2,804 (based on P/E multiple of 29x FY2012E earnings, and in line with its 5-year historical average valuations).
Key financials
Y/E Dec (Rs cr) Net Sales % chg Profit Net Profit % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (Rs) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) CY2009 4,324 23.4 534 29.1 20.0 55.4 50.6 57.1 119.8 160.7 6.2 31.1 CY2010 CY2011E CY2012E 5,129 18.6 655 22.6 20.2 67.9 41.3 46.5 124.2 164.3 5.2 26.0 6,077 18.5 768 17.2 19.0 79.6 35.2 34.4 112.2 142.9 4.4 23.3 7,080 16.5 932 21.4 19.2 96.7 29.0 29.1 108.7 136.6 3.8 19.7
Source: Company, Angel Research, Price as on August 10, 2010
Research Analyst – Anand Shah/Chitrangda Kapur/Sreekanth P .V.S
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Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN – DP – CDSL – 234 – 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
The Essay on The Rising Price of Food
Recent years have seen dramatic increases in the world prices for food commodities. The first half of the year 2008 saw the price of rice go up by 50% and generally speaking, similar increases in other food commodities such as maize, soybeans and wheat have been seen across the world, resulting in various forms of panic. In the Philippines, farmers have begun hoarding supplies of rice, while ...
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Focus Fundamental Focus | August 14, 2010
Finolex Cables – Buy
1QFY2011 Result Update
Performance Highlights
Y/E March 1QFY11 (Rs cr) Net Sales 493.1 EBITDA 39.6 EBITDA margin (%) 8.0 PAT 23.0 4QFY10 % chg (qoq) 464.0 6.3 32.8 20.9 7.1 (5.4) 1QFY10 327.8 50.0 15.2 22.0 % chg (yoy) 50.4 (20.7) 4.5
Price – Rs58 Target Price – Rs85
than doubled, increasing from Rs238cr in 3QFY2009 to Rs493 in1QFY2011. In the future too, the company looks to posting strong sales growth mainly on the back of demand revival in the economy. Margins under pressure, but stabilising: Post 3QFY2009, when the company posted losses at the operating level, margins improved to 16.5% in 2QFY2010 on the back of low-cost inventory. However, since then, margins have been declining and for 1QFY2011 came in at 8.0% mainly on account of the company’s decision to not fully pass on the higher copper prices. On a positive note, margins improved in 1QFY2011 qoq.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Finolex Cables posted a strong 50.4% growth in top-line for 1QFY2011 to Rs493cr (Rs328cr), which exceeded our expectations. Sales growth was backed by robust performance registered by the electrical cables segment, which grew 41.0% yoy during the quarter to Rs296cr (Rs210cr).
However, OPM was muted at 8.0% (15.2%) though sequentially it improved by 97bp. With strong growth prospects in demand, we remain positive on the company. top-line Strong top-line growth, sluggish margins: 1QFY2011 sales increased with the electrical cables segment recording strong growth. Copper rods and others segments sales also surged, increasing 68.2% and 513.3% yoy, respectively. However, higher raw material costs hit OPM, which stood at 8.0% for 1QFY2011. Segment-wise Segment-wise performance: The electrical cables segment posted strong growth of 41.0% yoy to Rs296cr (Rs210cr) mainly on the back of higher realisations. Segment EBIT margin, at 12.2%, fell 867bp yoy mainly owing to higher raw material costs. However, sequentially EBIT margins increased by 288bp. The communication cables segment registered a 20.4% yoy decline in sales to Rs42.7cr (Rs53.7cr).
The Essay on Strategic Sale Disinvestment Companies Sold
Other than Modern Food Industries (India) limited, only minority stakes in different PSEs were sold before the year 2000. The Government has since modified its policy to emphasise on strategic sales. The disadvantages of sale of minority stakes by the Government have been found to be as follows: Lower realisation's because the management control is not transferred. Moreover, it signals lack of ...
Margins of the segment fell from 15.0% in 1QFY2010 to 8.1% in FY2011, with EBIT coming in at Rs3.5cr (Rs8.1cr).
The copper rods segment posted sales of Rs339cr (Rs201cr) and EBIT of Rs3.7cr (Rs2.2cr).
However, most of these sales were inter-segmental. Segment margins were flat yoy, at 1.1%. Sales of the others segment grew to Rs55.7cr (Rs9.1cr).
A substantial portion of the sales was inter-segmental. The segment recorded EBIT of Rs0.7cr in 1QFY2011, vis-à-vis a loss of Rs0.6cr in 1QFY2010. Sales on a strong growth curve: The company has recorded a consistent increase in top-line since 3QFY2009, when it was hit by the global economic crisis. Since then, sales have more
Outlook and Valuation
Going ahead, we expect demand for low-tension (LT) cables to remain strong given the positive outlook in the user industries. The EHV and HT cables plants are expected to start contributing by FY2012E. We expect sales to log a CAGR of 23.2% over FY2010-12E to Rs2,458cr. However, OPM is expected to remain under pressure. Hence, we revise our OPM estimates from 10.2% to 10.0% in FY2011E and 10.4% to 10.2% in FY2012E. We expect PAT to log a CAGR of 57.4%. At current levels, the stock is trading at 9.9x FY2011E and 6.2x FY2012E EPS. Hence, Target Price we maintain a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs85.
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) Net Sales % chg Profit Net Profit % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (Rs) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2009 1,342 (3.1) (35) 7.6 (2.3) 1.5 6.8 0.6 8.3 FY2010 FY2011E 1,619 20.7 58 12.2 3.8 15.5 1.4 9.3 17.1 0.5 4.3 2,048 26.5 90 56.2 10.0 5.9 9.9 1.3 13.3 15.9 0.4 4.4 FY2012E 2,458 20.0 143 58.5 10.2 9.3 6.2 1.1 18.6 17.9 0.4 3.7
Source: Company, Angel Research; Price as on August 10, 2010
Research Analyst – Jai Sharda
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Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN – DP – CDSL – 234 – 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
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Focus Fundamental Focus | August 14, 2010
Hindalco-Novelis – Buy
1QFY2011 Result Update
The Essay on Are the Company’s Prices and Costs Competitive?
Tutor: Date: Are the company’s prices and costs competitive? The pricing system as well as cost deployed by an organization contributes to a large part in its competitive edge. Notably, in the current competitive world meticulous consideration is crucial in both pricing and costing on either products or services. Considering pricing as well as costs in Xerox, an organization dealing in consumer ...
Performance Highlights
Particulars (US $mn) Net sales Adj. EBITDA % margin Net profit 1QFY11 1QFY10 2,533 263 10.4 50 1,960 124 6.3 143 % chg (yoy) 29.2 112.1 406bp (65.0) 4QFY10 2,420 231 9.5 (1) % chg (qoq) 4.7 13.9 84bp –
Price – Rs164 Target Price – Rs204
Shipments across geographies higher yoy
(kt) Total sales North America Europe Asia South America 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 691 261 212 130 88 724 266 218 140 100 683 254 204 134 91 756 282 250 130 94 779 283 249 147 100 % yoy % qoq 12.7 8.4 17.5 13.1 13.6 3.0 0.4 (0.4) 13.1 6.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
Source: Company, Angel Research
op-line Top-line growth aided by higher shipments: Novelis, Hindalco’s subsidiary, reported strong set of numbers for 1QFY2011. The top line grew 29.2% yoy and 4.7% qoq to US $2,533mn, as total shipments increased by 12.7% yoy and 3.0% qoq to 779kt. On a yoy basis, all regions registered an increase in volumes ranging from 8-18%. On a qoq basis, volumes were flat in Europe but grew by 0.4-13.1% in other regions. EBITDA Adj. EBITDA at an all-time high: Novelis reported adj. EBITDA of US $263mn, up 112.1% yoy and 13.9% qoq. This increase was largely because of portfolio optimisation, increased pricing, higher usage of scrap, reduced energy costs and a 19% dip in SG&A expenses qoq. Consequently, adj. EBITDA/tonne touched its all-time high at US $339/tonne. Management reiterated its guidance of adj. EBITDA exceeding US $1bn. Interest expense declined by US $5mn. Net profit came in at US $50mn during the quarter. Key conference call takeaways Capex for the quarter stood at US $23mn. The full year capex guidance is US $250mn. While US $120mn will be used as maintenance capex, US $50mn will be spent on strategic projects, including de-bottlenecking of existing capacities. The balance will be spent on capacity expansion plan in South America, where the company is increasing capacity by 50% by FY2013E at a cost of US $300mn. The management indicated that it is operating at ~100% utilisation levels. In the near term, volume growth of ~4-5% will be led by de-bottlenecking. Free cash flow was lower at US $34mn in 1QFY2011 as compared to US $213mn in 4QFY2010, as working capital requirements increased due to higher LME prices and volumes. However, management expects free cash flow in FY2011E to exceed US $355mn.
Outlook and valuation
At Rs164, the stock is trading at 6.1x FY2011E and 5.8x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. Management expects Novelis to benefit from increased demand for rolled products, which is expected to grow by 34% over the next five years led by Asia, Middle East and South America. Further, Hindalco is increasing its aluminium capacity in India over the next two-four years. We maintain SOTP Target Price Buy on Hindalco with an SOTP Target Price of Rs204.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EPS (Rs) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E 65,415 9.6 485 (79.7) 2.9 4.6 58.0 1.8 2.9 0.8 16.8 60,563 (7.4) 3,925 708.9 20.5 16.1 8.1 1.4 20.6 13.4 0.8 5.0 63,659 5.1 3,626 (7.6) 18.9 13.0 8.7 1.2 15.1 10.3 0.8 6.1 FY2012E 67,521 6.1 3,891 7.3 20.3 13.8 8.1 1.1 14.2 10.0 0.8 5.8
Source: Company, Angel Research; Price as on August 10, 2010
Research Analyst – Paresh Jain/Pooja Jain
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Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN – DP – CDSL – 234 – 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
4
Focus Fundamental Focus | August 14, 2010
IVRCL Infrastructure – Buy
1QFY2011 Result Update
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (Rs cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg 4QFY10 (qoq) 1,106 1,110 0.3 1,890 100.8 99.6 1.2 198.4 28.1 35.3 (20.4) 85.3 % chg (yoy) (41.5) (49.2) (67.0)
Price – Rs170 Target Price – Rs216
Source: Company, Angel Research
IVRCL Infrastructure (IVRCL) reported flat yoy top-line performance for 1QFY2011, which was below our and street estimates. The company lost around Rs250cr in revenue for the quarter on account of three projects. Management has maintained its guidance of Rs6,700cr-Rs7,100cr, which implies growth run rate for the next three quarters at ~30%, even at the lower end of the guidance, which we believe is an uphill task. Therefore, we prune our estimates. However, given the company’s past excellent track record and robust order book rendering revenue visibility, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Top line below estimates, OPM in line with expectations: IVRCL reported a flat top-line performance at Rs1,106cr. On the operating front, the company posted margin of 9.1%, a tad above our estimates of 8.6%. Below-estimate top-line performance, cascaded at the bottom-line level, which came in at mere Rs28.1cr. IVRCL reported …but margins broadly in line with expectations: I EBITDA margin of 9.1% for 1QFY2011. However, due to disappointing top-line performance and increased debt levels, the bottom line reported a 20.4% decline to Rs28.1cr. We believe there would be a revival in bottom-line growth once execution picks up. This is the consecutive fourth quarter of a declined performance by the company. Management has guided a bottom line of ~Rs260cr for FY2011, which would require catching up as only Rs28.1cr of profit has been made until 1QFY2011.
IVRCL’s performance is disappointing on the execution front, but we expect execution to pick up as the issues are temporary in nature. We have valued IVRCL on an SOTP basis. The company’s core construction business is valued at a P/E of 14x FY2012E EPS of Rs11.6 (Rs162/share), while its stake in subsidiaries IVR Prime (Rs37/share) and Hindustan Dorr-Oliver (Rs17/share) has been valued on an Mcap basis, post assigning 20% holding company discount. Therefore, on the back of IVRCL’s excellent execution track record, robust order book to sales ratio and comfortable valuations, we maintain Buy on Target Price the stock with a Target Price of Rs216.
Key Financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (Rs cr) Net sales % chg Adj. net profit % chg EBITDA (%) FDEPS (Rs) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2009 4,882 33.4 225.6 7.1 8.6 8.4 20.4 2.5 13.2 12.7 1.2 14.0 FY2010 FY2011E 5,492 12.5 211.8 (6.1) 9.7 7.8 21.7 2.4 11.4 13.6 1.2 11.9 6,493 18.2 249.7 17.9 9.3 9.2 18.4 2.2 12.4 13.0 1.1 11.3 FY2012E 8,071 24.3 313.0 25.4 9.4 11.6 14.7 1.9 13.8 13.9 0.9 9.6
Outlook and valuation
IVRCL has a robust order book of Rs23,275cr (4.3x FY2010 revenue), which lends revenue visibility. Robust order booking over the last few quarters ensures IVRCL’s dependence on AP orders has come down significantly (from 28% to current 17%).
Source: Company, Angel Research; Price as on August 10, 2010
Research Analyst – Shailesh Kanani/Aniruddha Mate
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Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN – DP – CDSL – 234 – 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
5
Focus Fundamental Focus | August 14, 2010
Nagarjuna Construction – Buy
1QFY2011 Result Update
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (Rs cr) Net Sales Operating Profit Net Profit 1,086.5 1,001.0 105.8 41.4 103.8 38.2 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg 4QFY10 % chg (yoy) 8.5 1.9 8.3 (qoq) 1,522.7 (28.6) 152.7 (30.8) 102.6 (59.7)
Price – Rs166 Target Price – Rs201
Operating margins for the quarter, on a standalone basis, came in at 9.7% (10.4%) in line with our estimates. Interest costs witnessed a sequential decline in spite of debt going up due to low short-term borrowings rate. However, management has cautioned against interest rates hardening in ensuing quarters. Order Book Analysis: NCC’s order book, which is spread across >10 verticals and major contributors include buildings, water and roads, stood at Rs16,051cr (3.4x FY2010 revenues)
Source: Company, Angel Research
NCC posted disappointing numbers for 1QFY2011 mainly on the top-line front, which increased by a mere 8.5% v/s our expectation of 27.4%. We have marginally pruned our estimates by 2-3%. However, management has maintained its guidance of Rs5,800cr for the year. Exposure to Andhra Pradesh remains at ~6-7% and bills have been paid up to March 2010. Current receivables stand at Rs35cr. Results below expectations: NCC posted disappointing numbers for 1QFY2011 mainly on the top-line front, which increased by a mere 8.5% as against our expectation of 27.4%. Operating margins for the quarter came in at 9.7% (10.4%) in line with our estimates. Interest costs witnessed a sequential decline in spite of debt going up on account of low short-term borrowings rate. However, management has cautioned against interest rates hardening in ensuing quarters. Numbers below par: NCC posted disappointing numbers for 1QFY2011 mainly on the top-line front, which grew by a mere 8.5% as against our expectation of 27.4%. However, management has maintained its guidance of Rs5,800cr for the year. On a consolidated basis, for 1QFY2011 the company posted 16% yoy growth in top-line to Rs1,363cr. It’s Dubai and Muscat construction companies posted top-line of Rs179.6cr and Rs113.0cr, respectively. The Bangalore elevated road project has started collecting toll from April 7, 2010 at the run rate of Rs15lakh/day, with the potential to go up to Rs25lakh/day. The other three road BOT projects are expected to be operational in FY2011 (OB Infra – August 2010; Western UP – Sep 2010; Pondicherry Tindivanam – Dec 2010) and which would require investments of only Rs45-50cr. Management has guided that once all these projects are fully operational potential yearly revenue generation would be to the tune of Rs300-325cr out of which NCC’s share would be in the range of Rs150-160cr.
Outlook and Valuation:
We believe that NCC is well-placed to leverage the opportunity in the infrastructure space on account of having one of the most diversified order books along with exposure in most of the growth sectors. We believe that the BOT/BOOT project portfolio will also provide sustainable revenue stream for the company, as it would have five operational projects by FY2011E. NCC had mentioned earlier that it is looking for a strategic partner for its thermal power plant of 1,320MW (under financial closure).
But, given the recent problems at the site we believe that this proposed stake sale will take longer than the earlier estimated time-frame. Nonetheless, we maintain our SOTP Target Price of Rs201 as we had considered only the equity invested for the project, which contributes a mere 1% to our valuations. We maintain a Buy on NCC.
Key Financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (Rs cr) % chg Adj. Net Profit Profit % chg FDEPS (Rs) EBITDA Margin (%) P/E (x) RoAE (%) RoACE (%) P/BV (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2009 19.5 153.9 (5.0) 6.0 9.0 27.7 9.4 11.8 2.5 1.3 14.4 FY2010 FY2011E 15.1 200.3 30.2 7.8 10.1 21.2 10.2 12.8 1.9 1.2 11.6 20.1 221.7 10.7 8.6 9.8 19.2 9.6 12.2 1.8 1.1 10.8 FY2012E 6,587.5 14.8 252.4 13.8 9.8 9.9 16.9 10.0 12.3 1.6 1.0 9.8 Net Sales (incl op. income) 4,151.4 4,777.8 5,738.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Price as on August 11, 2010
Research Analyst – Shailesh Kanani/Aniruddha Mate
For Private Circulation Only |
Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN – DP – CDSL – 234 – 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP00000154 6 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
6
Focus Fundamental Focus | August 14, 2010
Ranbaxy – Accumulate
2QCY2010 Result Update
Performance Highlights
Y/E Dec 2QCY10 1QCY10 (Rs cr) Net Sales 2,099 2,487 Other Income 397 450 Operating Profit 365 771 Forex loss/ (gain) 349 (319) 326 Profit Net Profit 961
Source: Company, Angel Research
Price – Rs444 Target Price – Rs485
% chg 2QCY09 qoq (15.6) 1,792 (11.8) 127 (52.7) (30) (1,069) (66.1) 693
% chg yoy 17.1 211.6 (53.0)
in 2QCY2009).
Excluding the FTF sales, we expect OPM to be in the range of 3-4% for the quarter, indicating marginal improvement in the base business on the back of the restructuring exercise undertaken by the company over the last 6-9 months. Net profit driven by other income and nil tax charges: Ranbaxy reported net profit of Rs326cr (Rs693cr) driven by other income and nil tax charges. The company clocked income on sale of investment to the tune of Rs218cr. Further, there were no tax charges during the quarter as the company booked most of the tax expense pertaining to the sale of Valacyclovir in 1QCY2010 and profit on sale of investments were tax-free.
Ranbaxy reported higher-than-expected 2QCY2010 results driven by FTF Valacyclovir, profit on sale of investments and nil tax charges for the quarter. We expect operating performance of the base business to have improved marginally on the back of restructuring done by the company in various geographies. On the US FDA and DoJ issues, the company is expecting a comprehensive solution in the next few months albeit with some penalties. Valacyclovir: Revenues up 17% driven by Valacyclovir: Ranbaxy reported net sales of Rs2,099cr (Rs1,792cr), up 17.1% yoy driven by FTF exclusivity on Valacyclovir. On the back of exclusivity, the North America region revenues almost doubled to Rs738cr yoy. We expect Valacyclovir to contribute US $80-90mn on the revenue front with OPM of 65-75% during the period. Excluding the FTF sales, North America is estimated to report flat growth yoy. Ranbaxy launched Lipitor in Canada and expects 20% market share going forward with seven players in the market. Europe positively surprised with revenues of Rs320cr, up 15% yoy driven by the Romania region. The company indicated that Germany and UK have been profitable markets, while it is facing growth issues in France. The CIS region recorded sales of Rs93cr, a growth of 33%. India region (excluding tender business) grew by mere 11.0% in spite of 31 new products launched during the quarter and expansion of field force by 1,500 MRs in the last six months. However, the company expects the India region to post healthy growth in 2HCY2010; ground work for project Viraat has been completed. RoW sales de-grew by 11.0% following divestment of business in Japan and China. Ranbaxy also launched Lipitor in South Africa. OPM of base business improves marginally: Ranbaxy reported OPM of 17.4% (as against loss reported on the operating front
Outlook and Valuation
The company has maintained its revenue guidance of Rs7,800cr with net profit of Rs460cr for CY2010. We have revised upwards our other income estimates for CY2010 to factor in income from the Flomax settlement and sale of investments. On the valuation front, in the last three months, the stock has underperformed the BSE HC index by ~7% and is trading at EV/Sales of 2.5x (ex- FTF) CY2011E. We recommend an We Accumulate on the stock, with a target price of Rs485, valuing the base business at Rs380 at 2.2x CY2011E EV/Sales and Para have attached Rs105/share for the Para IVs.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y E Dec (Rs cr) Net Sales % chg Profit Reported Profit % chg EPS (Rs) EBITDA Margin (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/BV (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) 4.3 2.8 51.7 CY2008 7,224 6.6 (951) 5.3 CY2009 CY2010E CY2011E 7,329 1.5 296 7.1 6.1 62.4 3.3 2.4 4.3 2.8 47.0 8,162 11.4 1,611 38.3 16.0 11.5 31.3 12.7 3.3 2.4 14.8 9,913 21.4 1,210 (24.9) 28.8 19.0 15.3 20.2 18.8 2.9 1.9 10.1
Source: Company, Angel Research, Price as on August 13, 2010
Research Analyst – Sarabjit Kour Nangra/Sushant Dalmia
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7
Focus Fundamental Focus | August 14, 2010
State Bank of India – Accumulate
1QFY2011 Result Update
Performance Highlights
Particulars (Rs cr) NII Pre-Prov Profit PAT 1QFY11 4QFY10 7,304 6,134 2,914 6,721 5,194 1,867 % chg yoy 8.7 18.1 56.1 1QFY10 5,025 3,674 2,330 % chg yoy 45.4 67.0 25.1
Price – Rs2,784 Target Price – Rs3,185
Rs1,774cr (10.6% of the restructured loan book).
The bank’s restructured loans outside the RBI scheme stood at Rs12,900cr, indicating cumulative restructuring/net worth of 43.1% compared to sector average of 68.3%.
Outlook and Valuation
Due to strong CASA and fee income, SBI’s core RoEs have improved over the past few years and unlike virtually all other PSBs, actual FY2010 RoEs are below core levels due to low asset yields, providing scope for upside as the CD ratio improves and yields normalise to sectoral averages. SBI is trading at 2.1x FY2012E ABV while excluding value of insurance and capital market subsidiaries, it is trading at 1.7x FY2012E ABV v/s its 5-year range of 1.3-2.0x and median of 1.7x. We believe this provides reasonable upside, especially in light of its dominant position and reach, strong growth and superior earnings quality. We maintain an Accumulate on the stock, Target Price with a Target Price of Rs3,185.
Source: Company, Angel Research
For 1QFY2011, State Bank of India’s (SBI) standalone net profit grew 25.1% yoy and 56.1% qoq, which exceeded our estimates on account of better-than-estimated NII and lower operating expenses. Robust operating performance with reasonable asset quality was the key highlight of the result. Robust operating performance: The bank’s net advances increased 20.4% yoy and 3.4% qoq to Rs6,53,220cr, while total deposits grew 6.8% yoy and 1.4% qoq to Rs8,15,297cr during 1QFY2011. Reported net interest margin (NIM) improved by 22bp qoq and 88bp yoy to 3.18% during the quarter despite a hit of 12bp due to change in the method of calculation of SA interest. The margin expansion was underpinned by improvement in the CASA ratio to 47.5% as of 1QFY2011 from 38.5% as of 1QFY2010 and from 46.7% as of 4QFY2010 coupled with shedding of high-cost bulk deposits. Reasonable asset quality: SBI’s asset quality suffered slightly during the quarter as gross NPAs rose 6.6% qoq to Rs20,825cr, while net NPAs increased 1.9% qoq to Rs11,074cr partly due to the net increase in gross NPAs from agricultural advances of Rs683cr, which included Rs354cr towards the Agri Debt Waiver scheme. The gross and net NPA ratio remained steady sequentially at 3.1% and 1.7%, respectively. The gross slippages during the quarter were Rs4,081cr, which came primarily from the agri, retail and SME portfolios. The annualised slippage ratio stood at 2.6% compared to 2.2% in FY2010. The bank’s corporate and SME portfolio accounted for more than 56.0% of the total gross NPAs of Rs20,825cr. The provision coverage ratio including technical write-offs improved from 59.2% as of 4QFY2010 to 60.7% as of 1QFY2011. Out of the cumulative standard restructured assets under the RBI Special Dispensation Scheme which stood at Rs16,796cr as of 4QFY2010, Rs158cr turned into NPAs during the quarter taking the cumulative slippages from restructured book to
SOTP valuation summary
Company (Rs) SBI & Associates Life AMC Others (Cap Mkt, Cards, Factors) SOTP SOTP value Value per share 2,956 190 12 28 3,185
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) NII % chg Profit Net Profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (Rs) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%) FY2009 20,873 22.6 9,332 38.7 2.6 147.0 18.9 3.4 1.1 18.7 FY2010 FY2011E 23,671 13.4 9,398 0.7 2.5 148.0 18.8 2.9 0.9 16.2 30,834 30.3 10,771 14.6 2.8 169.7 16.4 2.4 0.9 16.4 FY2012E 37,558 21.8 5,042 39.6 2.9 236.9 11.8 2.1 1.1 20.1
Source: Company, Angel Research, Price as on August 12, 2010
Research Analyst – Vaibhav Agrawal/Amit Rane/Shrinivas Bhutda
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8
Focus Fundamental Focus | August 14, 2010
Tata Motors – Buy
1QFY2011 Result Update
Performance Highlights
Consolidated (Rs cr) Net Sales Operating Profit OPM (%) PA Reported PAT 1QFY11 1QFY10 27,056 3,855 14.2 1,979 16,397 503 3.1 (334) % chg yoy 65 667 1,118bp (692) Angel Est. 27,450 2,992 10.9 1,273 % Diff (1.4) 28.9 335bp 56
Price – Rs957 Target Price – Rs1,214
reported a 61.2% yoy jump in operating profit to Rs1,156cr (Rs717cr).
TML reported 23%yoy fall in net profit of Rs396cr (Rs514cr) for the quarter due to lower other income of Rs69 (Rs319).
Higher tax provision and interest rates arrested further gain in net profit for the quarter. The commissioning of the Sanand facility resulted in reduction in the capitalisation of interest expense and higher depreciation. Valuation Outlook and Valuation We estimate TML to record a CAGR of 171% in net profit over FY2010-12E on a consolidated basis, owing to the better-thanexpected recovery in JLR. At Rs957, on a consolidated basis, the stock is trading at 7.9x and 7.2x FY2011E and FY2012E earnings, respectively. We have valued the stock on the sum-of TML, the-parts (SOTP) methodology. We recommend a Buy on TML, SOTP Target Price with a revised SOTP Target Price of Rs1,214. We have valued the core business at Rs490, implying 6.5x FY2012E EV/EBITDA and P/E of 13x FY2012E EPS. Our embedded value of the subsidiaries and investments in TML’s books (including JLR) works out to Rs724/share. We value JLR at 7x PAT and 4.5x EV/EBITDA on FY2012E basis, in line with its peers.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Consolidated performance substantially above expectations: Tata Motors (TML) recorded an outstanding performance for 1QFY2011. Net profit for the quarter stood at Rs1,979cr as against net loss of Rs334cr in 1QFY2010. This exceptional performance came on the back of improved operational performance at JLR and other key subsidiaries of the company. Further, favorable currency movement and restructuring efforts at JLR boosted margins at consolidated levels. OPM increased by 1,118bp yoy and 343bp qoq to 14.2% for 1QFY2011. Topline at Rs27,056cr (up 65% yoy) was aided by higher growth in the domestic and JLR volumes and a significant 27% yoy jump in JLR realisation. TML’s total net debt, on a consolidated basis, increased marginally on a qoq basis to Rs19,983cr (Rs18,800cr in 4QFY2010).
The consolidated net debt-to-equity ratio stood at around 1.96x in 1QFY2011 (2.33x in 4QFY2010).
Consolidated (Rs cr) Net Sales Operating Profit OPM (%) PA Reported PAT 1QFY11 1QFY10 10,416 1,156 11.1 396 6,405 717 11.2 514 % chg yoy 63 61 (10)bp (23) Angel Est. 11,092 1,065 9.6 422 % Diff (6.1) 8.5 149bp (6)
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) Net Sales % chg Profit Adj. Net Profit % chg OPM (%) Adj. EPS (Rs) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2009 70,881 100.1 (2,228) (215.0) 2.1 (43.3) 8.4 1.2 56.6 FY2010 FY2011E 30.5 1,034 7.2 18.1 52.8 6.8 12.9 6.2 0.8 12.2 17.3 6,927 569.7 13.3 121.4 7.9 4.1 52.2 23.3 0.7 5.4 FY2012E 13.1 7,566 9.2 13.0 132.6 7.2 2.8 39.0 23.0 0.5 4.2 92,519 108,549 122,786
Source: Company, Angel Research
Standalone performance marginally below expectation: For 1QFY2011, TML reported substantial 63% yoy growth in net sales to Rs10,416cr (Rs6,405cr) on a low base, and was marginally lower than our expectation. Top-line was primarily driven by the 48% yoy growth in volumes. Net average realisation jumped almost 10.5% yoy largely owing to favourable product mix and the 1% hike in the product prices taken by the company during the quarter. During 1QFY2011, EBITDA margins declined by a marginal 10bp yoy to 11.1% (11.2%) owing to improved operating leverage. Thus, TML
Source: Company, Angel Research, Price as on August 10, 2010
Research Analyst – Vaishali Jajoo/Yaresh Kothari
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9
Focus Fundamental Focus | August 14, 2010
Tata Steel – Buy
1QFY2011 Result Update
Performance Highlights
Particulars 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg (Rs cr) (S) (S) (C) (C) Net revenue 6,471 5,554 16.5 27,195 23,292 16.8 EBITDA 2,836 1,681 68.8 4,433 (30) EBITDA margin(%) 43.8 30.3 1,357bp 16.3 PA Rep. PAT 1,579 790 100.0 1,825 (2,209) Source: Company, Angel Research
Price – Rs527 Target Price – Rs702
volumes. However, the company’s Indian operations are expected to remain strong because of higher integration levels. SOTP TP-based We maintain a Buy view on the stock with an SOTP-based Price Target Price of Rs702.
SOTP valuation
EBIDTA FY2012E EBIDTA (Rs) Tata Steel TSE Asia Total EV Net Debt Market cap Target Price Price
Source: Angel Research
EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIDTA (x) 7.0 5.0 5.0
EV (Rs) 81,141 23,112 5,568 109,820 47,541 62,279 702
11,592 4,622 1,114
Standalone performance impacted by lower volumes: Tata Steel’s standalone 1QFY2011 net revenue grew by 16.5% yoy to Rs6,471cr but was down 13.3% qoq. During the quarter, production was lower on a sequential basis due to maintenance shutdown and power failure at Jamshedpur plant. Sales volumes were flat on a yearly basis, declining 17.7% qoq to 1.4mn tonnes. Average realisation increased by 16.8% yoy and 8.3% qoq to Rs42,871/tonne. EBITDA margin expanded by 1,357bp to 43.8% on account of cost-reduction initiatives and higher realisations. Consequently, EBITDA grew by 68.8% yoy to Rs2,836cr. During the quarter, while interest expense declined by 4.2% yoy to Rs328cr, other income increased by 19.3% yoy to Rs129cr. As a result, net profit came in at Rs1,579cr, registering growth 100% yoy. Consolidated operations on a recovery: On a consolidated basis, 1QFY2011’s net revenue increased by 16.8% yoy, down 1.1% qoq, to Rs27,195cr. Group deliveries increased by 8.9% yoy to 6mn tonnes; however, they declined by 7.5% on a sequential basis. In Europe, deliveries increased to 3.7mn tonnes as compared to 3.3mn tonnes in 1QFY2010 but were down sequentially from 3.9mn tonnes in 4QFY2010. EBITDA/tonne for TSE increased to US $79 as compared to a loss of US $117 in 1QFY2010. Adjusted EBITDA/tonne stood at US $105 for the quarter. Capacity utilisation in Europe was 90% during the quarter. Consolidated EBITDA stood at Rs4,433cr as compared to a loss of Rs30cr in 1QFY2010. Consolidated net profit stood at Rs1,825cr as compared to a loss of 2,209cr in 1QFY2010.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EPS (Rs) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E 12.4 4,951 (59.9) 59.0 12.3 8.9 1.6 16.0 15.4 0.7 5.4 (30.5) (2,009) (25.0) 7.9 1.7 5.2 0.9 12.0 13.3 6,483 73.1 13.8 7.2 1.4 21.2 13.2 0.8 5.9 FY2012E 4.7 7,158 10.4 80.7 14.3 6.5 1.2 19.7 14.1 0.4 5.2 147,329 102,393 115,961 121,410
Outlook and valuation
At the CMP of Rs527, the stock is trading at 5.9x FY2011E and 5.2x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. Going forward, we expect TSE to report weaker performance on a sequential basis in 2QFY2011 due to lower product prices, higher raw-material cost and lower
Source: Company, Angel Research, Price as on August 13, 2010
Research Analyst -Paresh Jain/Pooja Jain
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10
Technical Picks | August 14, 2010
Range bound activity continues – Undertone still bullish
Sensex (18167) / Nifty (5452)
In our previous Weekly report, we had mentioned that for the past four weeks, indices have been trading sideways in the range of 17840 / 5350 on the downside, and 18300 / 5480 on the upside and any breakout or breakdown from mentioned levels would dictate the direction of the trend. Further, we had also emphasized that there is no weakness on the chart as the intermediate trend remains up. The week began on a positive note and registered a new 52 week high of 18309 / 5492 but was unable to sustain gains, which led the Sensex to end with marginal gains of (0.13)%, whereas the Nifty gained (0.24)% vis-à-vis the previous week.
Exhibit 1: Sensex Weekly chart
Channel
Source: Falcon
Pattern Formation
On the Daily chart the momentum oscillators viz. the RSI chart, and the Stochastic are positively poised. This suggests a continuation of an up move. On the Weekly chart, the upper trendline of the channel is chart acting as a strong supply zone for past five weeks. The supply zone also coincides with the 78.6% retracement levels (18315 / 5480) of the preceding down-move that started from 21000 to 7697 / 6357 to 2252 levels. Any close above 18315 / 5480 levels would warrant further up-move.
Exhibit 2: Nifty Daily chart
5350 support level
Source: Falcon
Future Outlook
Markets are stuck in a range of 17840 / 5350 on the downside, and 18300 / 5480 on the upside and at present, they are trading near the upper side of the band. In view of the daily chart, we are witnessing that the momentum oscillator’s viz. the RSI and the Stochastic are positively poised. This suggests that there is high probability of the indices to trade and close above 18315 / 5480 levels. We maintain our view that once the indices trade and close above 18315 / 5480 levels they are likely to test 18600 / 5600 levels. On the downside, 17840 / 5350 still remains crucial support level for the coming week. Any breach of this level would mean loss of upside momentum and we could witness weakness. We reiterate our view that traders holding long positions should stop-loss maintain the stop-loss at 5340 levels and trade with a positive bias as long as the markets hold 5350 levels.
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11
Technical Picks | August 14, 2010
Weekly Pivot Levels For Nifty 50 Stocks
SCRIPS
SENSEX NIFTY BANK NIFTY A.C.C. ABB LTD. AMBUJACEM AXISBANK BHARAT PETRO BHARTIARTL BHEL CAIRN CIPLA DLF GAIL HCL TECHNOLO HDFC BANK HERO HONDA HINDALCO HINDUNILVR HOUS DEV FIN ICICI BANK IDEA IDFC INFOSYS TECH ITC JINDL STL&PO JPASSOCIAT KOTAK BANK LT MAH & MAH MARUTI NTPC ONGC CORP . PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY LAB. RCOM REL.CAPITAL RELIANCE RELINFRA RPOWER SIEMENS STATE BANK STEEL AUTHOR STER SUN PHARMA. SUZLON TATA POWER TATAMOTORS TATASTEEL TCS UNITECH LTD WIPRO R2 18525 5559 11083 875 835 126 1374 717 343 2582 376 331 337 470 431 2148 1941 174 276 3194 1025 75 191 2934 164 696 127 864 1857 705 1287 204 1328 1199 105 463 183 812 1021 1142 162 725 3072 204 190 1816 60 1376 1126 575 906 95 451 R1 18346 5505 10910 860 809 121 1351 694 330 2539 366 323 330 462 421 2118 1913 170 271 3095 1001 74 186 2855 160 679 124 847 1833 666 1268 200 1303 1169 103 453 176 788 1000 1113 159 711 2961 198 175 1784 58 1352 1070 551 880 91 433 PIVO PIVOT 18130 5439 10609 842 789 117 1313 669 323 2500 348 317 317 447 408 2083 1871 166 263 3030 975 72 181 2805 156 650 121 821 1815 641 1236 196 1263 1125 101 444 171 770 985 1095 156 695 2769 195 167 1755 57 1330 979 529 859 88 420 S1 17951 5386 10436 826 763 113 1290 646 309 2458 338 309 310 439 398 2053 1843 162 257 2931 951 71 176 2727 152 634 117 804 1790 602 1217 192 1237 1095 100 434 164 746 964 1066 153 681 2658 189 153 1723 55 1306 922 505 833 84 402 S2 17736 5319 10135 808 744 109 1252 621 302 2419 320 302 298 425 385 2018 1801 158 249 2865 925 69 171 2676 148 605 114 779 1772 576 1185 188 1197 1050 98 425 160 729 949 1048 151 666 2465 186 144 1694 54 1285 831 484 812 81 389
Technical Research Team
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12
Derivatives Review | August 14, 2010
Market unlikely to go above 5500; square off Nifty longs
Nifty spot has closed at 5452 this week, against a close of 5439 last week. The Put-Call Ratio has increased from 1.37 to 1.49 levels and the annualized Cost of Carry (CoC) is positive 2.24 The Open Interest of Nifty Futures has increased by 10.89 2.24%. 10.89%.
Put-Call Ratio Analysis
The Nifty PCR has increased from 1.25 to 1.37 levels. In the week gone by, most of the Put options from 5100 to 5500 strike added significant open interest. In the calls, the 5500 and 5600 strike options continued to add some positions. Broader range for the market is still 5600 on the higher side and the 5300 on the lower side, as at these strikes call and put options have highest open interest. In the Stock options the 1000 and 1020 Calls of RELIANCE, 2900 Call and 2500 Put of SBIN and 540 and 560 Calls of TATASTEEL have significant open positions.
Futures Annual Volatility Analysis
The Historical Volatility of the Nifty has decreased from 14.03% to 13.50%. IV of at the money options has decreased from 14.75% to 14.00%. Some liquid counters where HV has increased significantly are TATACOMM, EDUCOMP, CENTURYTEX, PATNI and SBIN. Stocks where HV has decreased are RNRL, TATAPOWER, PUNJLLOYD, IDEA and TECHM.
Open Interest Analysis
The total Open Interest of the market is Rs1,70,237cr, as against Rs1,47,025cr last week, and the Stock Futures’ open interest increased from Rs43,218cr to Rs47,927cr. Some liquid stocks, where open interest has increased significantly are ADANIPOWER, PATELENG, NEYVELILIG, EDUCOMP and TATAMOTORS. Stocks where open interest has decreased significantly are PFC, IFCI, INDIAINFO, MUNDRAPORT and GAIL.
Cost-of-Carry Analysis
The Nifty Aug Future closed at a premium of 4.35 points as against a premium of 3.20 points last week and Sep future closed at a premium of 11.60 points. Few liquid counters where CoC turned from negative to positive are BEML, ADANIPOWER, IVRCLINFRA, NATIONALUM and HCLTECH. Stocks which are trading at a discount due to dividend are CHENNPETRO, RECLTD, TATAPOWER, UNIPHOS and AMBUJACEM.
Derivative Strategy
Scrip : NTPC View: Mildly Bullish Buy/Sell Buy Sell Qty 1000 1000 Scrip NTPC NTPC Strike Price Fut. 200 CMP : Rs. 195.75/Lot Size : 1000 Expiry Date (F&O) : 26th Aug, 2010 Expected Payoff
Price Closing Price Expected rofit/Loss Profit/Loss
Strategy: Covered Call Writing Series Aug Aug. Option Type Call Buy Rate (Rs.) 196.00 1.50
Rs. 190.00 Rs. 194.00 Rs. 198.00 Rs. 202.00 Rs. 206.00 Rs. 210.00
(Rs. 4.50) (Rs.0.50) Rs. 3.50 Rs. 5.50 Rs. 5.50 Rs. 5.50
BEP: BEP: Rs. 194.50/Max. Risk: Unlimited If NTPC closes below BEP on expiry. Max. Profit: Rs. 5,500.00/Profit: If NTPC closes on or above Rs200 on expiry.
NOTE TE: NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry, if stock moves in a favorable direction and time value decay.
LT Scrip : LT View: Mildly Bullish Buy/Sell Buy Qty 125 Scrip LT
CMP : Rs. 1808.70/-
Lot Size : 125
Expiry Date (F&O) : 26th Aug, 2010 Expected Payoff
Strategy: Long Call Strike Price 1800 Series Aug Option Type Call Buy Rate (Rs.) 25.00
Price Closing Price
Expected rofit/Loss Profit/Loss
Rs. 1775.00 Rs. 1800.00 Rs. 1825.00 Rs. 1850.00 Rs. 1875.00 Rs. 1900.00
(Rs. 25.00) (Rs. 25.00) Rs. 0.00 Rs. 25.00 Rs. 50.00 Rs. 75.00
BEP: BEP: Rs.1825.00/Max. Risk: Rs. 3,125.00/If LT closes on or below Rs.1800 on expiry. Max. Profit: Unlimited If LT continues to trade above BEP .
NOTE TE: NOTE: Profit can be booked before expiry, if stock moves in a favorable direction.
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13
Fund Focus Mutual Fund Focus | August 14, 2010
Fixed Maturity Plan-FMP
Key Features of FMP
Fixed Maturity Plans (FMPs) are closed-ended debt funds with maturity of one month to five years. Fixed Maturity Plan generates regular income and / or capital appreciation by investing in wide range of debt and money market instruments. In Fixed Maturity Plan, each plan under the scheme will invest in a portfolio of securities normally having maturity duration in line with the maturity duration of the respective plan. They invest in debt instruments such as certificate of deposits, commercial paper and corporate debentures with a maturity coinciding with that of the fund. They usually invest in credit worthy instruments (AAA or equivalent rated) which takes care of credit risk. The objective of fund managers is to lock into a certain rate of return on the assets at inception, thereby protecting the schemes against market fluctuations. FMPs can be described as the mutual fund industry’s alternative to fixed deposits. FMPs are a good investment vehicle for investors who are targeting a return on their investments over a fixed period of time and are indifferent to market volatility within that period.
Bank Fixed Deposit v/s Fixed Maturity
Particulars Investment (Rs.) Post Expenses Yield (p.a)* Tenor (in days) Final Maturity- Realised Amt Gain Indexed Cost (Assuming 7% as cost of Inflation) Tax Rate(2009-2010) Tax Post Tax Gain Tax Post Tax Annualised Bank Fixed Deposit 10000 6.00% 369 10,607 607 With Without Indexation Indexation 10000 7.10% 369 10,718 718 10000 7.10% 369 10,718 718
NA 30.90% 187 10,420 4.15%
10,700 20.60% 4 10714 7.06%
NIL 10.30% 74 10,644 6.37%
Note: Dividends is tax Free. This Example is for illustration purpose only.*Assumed yields as per Past Record & Current Scenario.
Various Instruments -FMPs generally Invest
Instrument Interbank Call Money 91 Day Treasury Bill 182 Day Treasury Bill P1 + Commercial Paper 90 Days 5 Year Government of India Security 10 Year Government of India Security 1 Year Corporate AAA 3 Year Corporate AAA Yield Range (% per annum) 2.75%-3.25% 3.50%-4.00% 3.90%-4.50% 4.75% -6.00% 7.10%-7.30% 7.50%-7.80% 6.10%- 7.00% 7.40%-7.80%
Advantages of Investing in FMP
Capital protection advantage: Less risk of capital loss than equity funds as investment is in debt and money market instruments. Tax advantage: Being a debt-based scheme, dividend are tax free in the hands of investors, mutual fund has to pay Dividend Distribution Tax (DDT), while bank Fixed Deposits interest is fully taxable in investor’s hands. Double indexation: Hold an investment for a little more than one year but get the benefit of the index multiple of two years. Low interest rate sensitivity: As securities are held till maturity, FMPs are not affected by interest rate volatility.
Source: BSLI AMC; Note: The following table gives approximate yields prevailing on January 25, 2010 on some instruments. These yields are indicative and do not indicate yields that may be obtained in future as interest rates keep changing consequent to changes in the macro economic conditions and RBI Policies.
Why Invest now in FMPs
Uncertain interest rate scenarios, FMP are better investment option compared to Bank fixed deposits. Debt Funds are exposed to interest rate, liquidity & credit Risk while FMPs are exposed to credit risk only which is taken care by investing in high Quality Papers. A hedge against Interest Rate Volatility. Good instrument as a portfolio diversifier. Ideal for Investors with low risk appetite.
Disclaimer: Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd is not responsible for any error or inaccuracy or any losses suffered on account of information contained in this report. Mutual Fund investments are subjected to market risk. Read the Scheme information document carefully before investing.
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14
Fund Focus Mutual Fund Focus | August 14, 2010
ICICI Prudential Fixed Maturity Plan Series 53 – 3 Years Plan A – NFO Analysis
Fund Features
Scheme Objective mature on or before the date of maturity of the plans / scheme. Type of Scheme Bench Mark Index Scheme Duration NFO Price Plans & Option(s) Minimum Application Amount Entry Loads Entry Loads NIL NIL (No redemption/repurchase of units shall be allowed prior to the maturity of the scheme).
Investors wishing to exit may do so through stock exchange mode Asset Allocation Instruments Central and State Government securities Money Market instruments, Short-term and medium term debt securities/debt instruments and securitised debt Fund Manager Mr. Chaitanya Pande 0%-100% Low to Medium Asset Allocation 0%-100% Risk Profile Low to Medium A Close Ended Debt Scheme CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Index The scheme will have duration 1100 days from the date of allotment. Rs. 10 Per Unit. The Scheme will have Growth & Dividend Option. Rs. 5,000/- and in multiples of Rs. 10 thereafter
NFO Date: – 9th Aug to 23rd Aug 2010
The scheme seeks to generate regular returns by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities/ debt instruments which
*Including securitized debt of upto 100% of the net assets. Under the above mentioned Plan it is proposed to make investment in debt securities which mature on or before the date of maturity of the scheme.
Performance of the Funds Managed by Fund Manager
Schemes 1 year 3 years 5 years Since Inception 6.23 6.95 6.49 5.66 9.6 8.62 5.89
Investment Strategy
The Scheme will invest in a basket of debt and money market securities maturing on or before maturity of the Scheme. The fund will accordingly make investment strategy to buy or hold securities. The AMC aims to identify securities, which offer superior levels of yield at lower levels of risks. With the aim of controlling risks, rigorous in-depth credit evaluation of the securities will be carried out by the investment team of the AMC. The investment team of the AMC will study the macro economic conditions, including the political, economic environment and factors affecting liquidity and interest rates. The AMC would use this analysis to attempt to predict the likely direction of interest rates and position the portfolio appropriately to take advantage of the same. The corpus of the Scheme will be invested only in debt and money market instruments.
ICICI Prudential FRF-Plan A ICICI Prudential Liquid Plan ICICI Prudential LT FRF-Plan A Fund Crisil Liquid Fund Index ICICI Prudential Income Fund ICICI Prudential LTP
3.94 3.75 5.62 3.64 3.33 5.2
6.35 6.2 6.93 6.14 10.68 7.47 6.38
6.49 6.38 6.75 6.21 8.62 7.1 5.53
Fund Crisil Composite Bond Index Fund 5.01
Note: Returns (%) are on CAGR Basis as on 12th August, 2010
Why should one invest in this fund?
FMPs with growth options and tenure of more than a year can avail benefits of Indexation. Uncertain Interest rate scenario, FMPs offer higher tax-adjusted return then Bank fixed deposits. A hedge against Interest rate volatility. Good instrument as a portfolio diversifier. Low transaction cost as securities are held till maturity. Ideal for Investors with low risk appetite.
Ideal for Investors
Investors looking for capital protection and steady returns Investment Horizon: Long Term Risk Appetite: Low
Disclaimer: Angel Broking Ltd is not responsible for any error or inaccuracy or any losses suffered on account of information contained in this report. Data source is from MFI Explorer and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund NFO Product Note. Mutual Fund investments are subjected to market risk. Please read the Statement of Additional Information and Scheme Information document carefully before investing.
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15
Currency Corner | August 14, 2010
Currencies Weekly Performance Snapshot
The US dollar index (DX) gained more than 3% in the last week after declining constantly in the previous weeks. Uncertainty in the global financial markets attracted demand for the currency. Poor economic updates from the larger economies including China, US and the Euro zone weighed on the currencies. The Euro declined more than 4% in the last week as poor economic data from the region coupled with the stronger DX exerted pressure. Industrial production in the Euro zone declined by 0.1% in June. Markets had expected the industrial output to increase by 0.7%. In the earlier month of May, industrial production had increased by 1.1%. Italian trade deficit widened in the month of June to 3.06 billion Euros from the previous deficit of 1.93 billion Euros. The European Central bank (ECB) said that it is cautious over the economy as they expect a slowdown at the end of the year while the second-half is expected to be less dynamic than the second-quarter of this year.
Exhibit 2: Spot Rupee Weekly Price Chart
Source: Telequote
Exhibit 1: Currencies Performance
Currency DX Euro INR JPY GBP
Source: Telequote
14-Aug 82.92 1.275 46.76 86.26 1.559
7-Aug 80.41 1.3289 46.12 85.43 1.5941
chg 2.51 (0.053) 0.64 (0.83) (0.035)
% chg 3.1 (4.1) 1.4 (0.9) (2.2)
Technical Fundamental and Technical Outlook: Concerns over the global economic recovery are expected to lead to demand for the safer investments in this week. On the back of this, we expect the DX to strengthen. Overall risk aversion in the global markets is expected due to slowdown in US and China. This could lead to downside pressure in equities, thereby leading to depreciation in the Rupee. In the last week itself, the Rupee depreciated taking cues from choppy equities and dollar strength and this is expected to prevail in this week. The Euro has now started to decline as the gains have not been sustainable. Although concerns over the debt crisis have eased, risks pertaining to the long term impact of the same still remain. We expect the Euro to continue to weaken in this week.
unchanged:The US Federal Reserve Fed leaves interest rates unchanged: left its benchmark interest rate at 0-0.25% and said that it would keep rates low for an exceptionally long period. The central banks said that it would buy government debt by reinvesting proceeds from its mortgage bond portfolio into long-term Treasury securities. Constant poor economic data from the US is making the Fed to keep interest rates to lower levels. US trade deficit gap grew by 19% in the month of June to reach $49.9 billion from the previous $42 billion. The Federal Budget balance widened to total $165 billion in July from the previous $68.4 billion in June. Indian Rupee depreciates in the last week: The INR depreciated in the last week as choppy equities coupled with the stronger dollar exerted pressure on the Rupee. However, the currency managed to recover after touching a low of 47.04 against the greenback to close at 46.76 on Friday. FII inflows in August 2010 have totaled around Rs 5,067.90 crore (till 11 August 2010).
In the month of July 2010, FIIs had bought equities worth Rs 17,657.60 crore. FII inflows in the calendar year 2010 have amounted to around Rs 52,762.30 crore (till 11 August 2010).
Exhibit 3: Technical Levels
Currency DX Euro INR JPY GBP
Source: Telequote
Support 80.00 1.2400 45.85 84.70 1.5300
Resistance 84.35 1.3300 47.65 87.50 1.6000
Trend Up Sideways Up Sideways Down
Research Analyst (Commodity) – Reena Walia Nair/Naser Parkar
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16
Commodities Center | August 14, 2010
Commodities Update
Exhibit 1: Commodities Weekly Performance
Aug. 14th Aug. 2010 Non Agri- Commodities (MCX) Top Gainers Gold 18558 Top Losers Crude Oil 3540 Lead 96.05 Agri Commodities (NCDEX) Top Gainers Mentha Oil 777.2 Jeera 14511 Refine Soy Oil 519.4 Losers Top Losers Potato 312.4 Turmeric 13,150 Guar Seed 2208 Aug. 7th Aug. 2010 % Change
18197 3732 100.25
2 -5.1 -4.2
725.1 14189 509.05 334.5 13,562 2269
7.2 2.3 2 -6.6 -3.0 -2.7
in the previous year. Oil complex particularly Refine Soy Oil and Mustard seed continued to trade firm in this week due to firm overseas market and improved demand of Soy bean from the China. Soybean imports from China surged to 52 million tonnes till July 2010 compared to 49.2 million tonnes in 2009. Further, according to WASDE report released on August 12,2010 Global oilseeds production is projected to decline by 1 million tonnes and stood at 439.7 million tonnes thereby adding to the gains. Decline in production of Rapeseed and Sunflower Oil led to lower global output of oilseeds. Potato, Guar and Turmeric stood in the losers category in the last week. Potato continued to trade bearish and slipped by 6.6% due to weak demand from the domestic and good stocks at the cold storage. Among the spices Turmeric witnessed a decline of 3% falling by almost Rs.412 on concerns of better production in 2010-11 and lacklustre demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. Guar prices dipped to lows of Rs.2,177/qtl on account of adequate rains in the Guar growing areas and hopes of better production of Guarseed in 201011. Rains in Haryana and Rajasthan are likely to raise the production in 2010 and are therefore pressurizing the prices. Other reason attributed to the fall is the decline in the demand for the Guargum by the overseas buyers and Churi and Korma, a widely used cattle feed.
Perspective: International Perspective: The last week was not fruitful for the international commodities segment, with metal and energy prices declining, taking cues from the uncertain financial markets. Constant poor economic data from the US continued to affect the investor sentiments and the US Federal Reserve also indicated signs of slower economic growth in the second part of this year. The US dollar index (DX) appreciated sharply by around 3% in the last week and this factor also affected the commodity prices. Gold prices gained around 2% on the MCX in the last week as poor global economic scenario attracted demand. Inflationary concerns also spiked the demand for gold. China, reported in the last week that its inflation surged to 3.3% in July. Moreover, food inflation in India increased to 11.4% for the week ending July 31st. The upcoming festival season in India is also raising hopes of increasing demand for gold from the Indian investors. Crude oil prices declined sharply in the last week, losing around 5% on the MCX. The commodity prices lost more than 6% on the Nymex. Poor economic data from China, US and the Euro zone weighed on the energy prices. Industrial production in China declined to 13.4% in July from the previous figures of 13.7% in June. Moreover, industrial production in the Euro zone also declined by 0.1% in June. Rise in inflation in China is increasing concerns that the government would further resort to monetary tightening. This may lead to reduced demand for crude oil from the top consumer of the commodity. Perspective: Agri Perspective: Mentha Oil, Jeera and Refine Oil gained in the last week. Mentha Oil prices strengthened in the last week by 7.2% due to projected decline in the production and improved demand from the overseas buyers. Production of Mentha Oil is expected to be 21,000 tonnes as compared to 28,000 tonnes
Exhibit 2: Major Economic Data Releases this week
Date 16-Aug 17-Aug 17-Aug 17-Aug 17-Aug 19-Aug Country US US US EUR US US Indicator Forecast Previous TIC Long Term Purchases 36.3B 35.4B Building Permits 0.58M 0.58M PPI m/m 0.2% 0.1% German ZEW Economic Sentiment20.9 21.2 Industrial Production m/m 0.5% 0.1% Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 7.2 5.1
Outlook: In this week, we expect the DX to strengthen as concern over global economic recovery has led to poor investor sentiments. Strength in the DX will exert pressure on base metal and crude oil prices as it will make them look expensive for holders of other currencies. But gold prices are expected to rise as risk aversion, choppy equities and fears of a double dip recession will boost demand for the yellow metal as a safe-haven investment. In the agri segment this week too, the prices will correct in some of the major commodities such as Guar and Turmeric. Mentha Oil is expected to trade firm due to improved demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. Demand from the local stockists ahead of festivals will help Refine Soy Oil prices to trade northwards in this week.
Research Analyst (Commodity) – Nalini Rao/Reena Walia Nair
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17
Commodities Center | August 14, 2010
Turmeric
Higher Production of Turmeric in 2010-11, eroding the gains of the previous year. Turmeric or the golden spice which shined in most part of the previous year has started its journey southwards due to better crop estimates in 2010-11. Turmeric production has been pegged by around 43 percent and is projected at 69 lakh bags after two consecutive falls in the output in the previous years. Production in 2009-10 and 2008-09 was reported at 48 lakh bags and 42 lakh bags respectively. Region wise production in 2010-11 is shown in the table below: Exports from the nation in the month of April and May 2010 stood at 10,350 tonnes as compared to 9,625 tonnes in the same period previous year.
Turmeric Price Trend
Turmeric Production
figures in lakh bags Growing regions Erode Nizamabad Nanded & Basmat & Sangli Duggiralla and Cudappah Warangal Orissa and others Total 2009-10 23 11 5.5 3.5 4 1 48 2010-11 35 20 6.5 3.5 2 2 69
Source: NCDEX and Telequote ; * Prices are monthly average
Outlook
Turmeric prices in the short term are expected to trade in bearish manner on account of dull demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. Prices may find support only if significant demand from the overseas is placed. There are lower stocks of Turmeric in the domestic market till the fresh arrivals expected in the month of January next year. This which will help prices to find support. Turmeric stocks with the stockists are projected at 16 lakh bags (each bag weighs 70-75 kgs.) In the medium term (September onwards) turmeric prices will depend on the sowing progress, growth of the sown crop and demand from the domestic and overseas buyers. Also, with the commencement of the festivals in the domestic market and winter season ahead, bulls may regain their power. In the long term (October onwards) prices are likely to take cues from clear estimates of turmeric production and demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. Technically, Turmeric September contract shall find strong support at Rs.13,000/Rs.12,690 and resistance may be seen at Rs.13,500/Rs.13,790.
Source : Spot traders ( Note: each bag weighs 70-75 kgs.)
Better monsoon rains in the turmeric belt particularly A.P and Tamil Nadu led farmers to go for enhanced sowing in this spice commodity. Other reason attributed or the major reason behind sowing this spice on improved scale by the domestic farmers was handsome profits earned by them in previous year. Rainfall in this season in Andhara Pradesh has been better than the average after witnessing inadequate rainfall in the past two years. According to Indian Metrological Department (IMD) during the period 01.06.2010 to 11.08.2010 the average rainfall registered in the State has been 446.4 mm against the normal of 339 mm, an ‘excess’ of 31per cent. Area sown under some of the crop such as cotton, ground nut, redgram, chillies and Turmeric is reported to be stable or higher.
Price trend
Turmeric prices after making a high of Rs.16,026/qtl in the month of July are moving southwards and are currently trading at Rs.13,552. Prices in the spot markets have also witnessed a fall in this month tracking the futures and sluggish demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. Prices in the months of April and May 2010 however, traded rangebound to firm due to good overseas demand and concerns of delayed monsoon.
Research Analyst (Commodity) – Nalini Rao
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18
Commodities Center | August 14, 2010
Commodity Technical Report
MCX October Gold
Last week, Gold prices opened the week at Rs.18,185 per 10 grams, initially moved lower, but found strong support at Rs.18,135. Later prices rallied sharply higher breaking the initial resistance at 18345 levels and made a high of 18587 and Gold prices finally closed the week at Rs.18,565 up by Rs 368 as compared with previous week’s close of Rs.18,197.
MCX September Silver
Last week, Silver prices opened at Rs.29,103 per kg initially moved sharply higher, but found strong resistance at Rs.29,274 levels. Later Silver prices corrected towards Rs. 28,713 levels and finally ended the week with a loss of Rs.81 to close at Rs.29039 as compared with previous week’s close of Rs.29120.
Trend : UP (MCX GOLD Daily Chart)
Trend : Sideways (MCX SILVER Daily Chart)
Source: Telequote
Source: Telequote
Levels For Week Key Levels For Week :
S1 – 18,430 S2 – 18,285 R1 – 18,647 R2 – 18,846
Levels For Week Key Levels For Week :
S1 – 28,930 S2 – 28,500 R1 – 29,450 R2 – 29,750
Recommended Strategy: Buy MCX Gold October in the range of 18480-18450 with strict stop-loss below 18280 Targeting initially 18640 and then 18740.
Recommended Strategy: Neutral
MCX August Copper
Last week Copper prices opened the week at Rs.342.85 per kg initially moved higher but found resistance at 344.95 levels. Later prices fell sharply lower and made a low of 334.80 levels and copper finally ended the week at Rs.335.05 with a loss of Rs.7.15 as compared with previous week’s close of Rs.342.20.
MCX September Crude
Last week Crude prices opened the week at Rs.3775 levels initially moved higher but found strong resistance at 3804. Later prices fell sharply lower breaking both the supports and made a low of 3564 levels and Crude finally ended the week at Rs.3580 with a loss of Rs.186 as compared with previous week’s close of Rs.3766.
Trend : Down (MCX COPPER Daily Chart)
Trend : Sideways (MCX CRUDEOIL Daily Chart)
Source: Telequote
Source: Telequote
Levels For Week Key Levels For Week :
S1 – 331.70 S2 -325.90 R1 – 338.30 R2 – 345.0
Levels For Week Key Levels For Week :
S1 – 3510 S2 – 3451 R1 – 3640 R2 – 3740
Recommended Strategy: Sell MCX Copper August in the range of 338-340 with strict stop-loss above 345 Targeting initially 331 and then 329.
Recommended Strategy: Buy MCX Crude September in the range of 3510-3490 with strict stop-loss below 3420 Targeting initially 3640 and then 3700.
Sr. Technical Analyst (Commodities) – Samson Pasam
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Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra Vaibhav Agrawal Vaishali Jajoo Shailesh Kanani Anand Shah Deepak Pareek Sushant Dalmia Rupesh Sankhe Param Desai Sageraj Bariya Viraj Nadkarni Paresh Jain Amit Rane John Perinchery Jai Sharda Sharan Lillaney Amit Vora V Srinivasan Aniruddha Mate Mihir Salot Chitrangda Kapur Vibha Salvi Pooja Jain Yaresh Kothari Shrinivas Bhutda Sreekanth P .V.S Hemang Thaker Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Mileen Vasudeo Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Jaya Agarwal Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi Abhimanyu Sofat Nitesh Jalan Pranav Modi Sandeep Jangir Ganesh Iyer Jay Harsora Meenakshi Chavan Gaurang Tisani Production Team: Bharathi Shetty Simran Kaur Bharat Patil Dilip Patel Research Editor Research Editor Production Production [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] VP – Institutional Sales AVP – Institutional Sales Sr. Manager Sr. Manager Sr. Manager Sr. Manager Sr. Dealer Dealer Dealer [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Sr. Technical Analyst Technical Analyst Head – Derivatives Derivative Analyst [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] VP-Research, Pharmaceutical VP-Research, Banking Automobile Infrastructure, Real Estate FMCG , Media Oil & Gas Pharmaceutical Cement, Power Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping Fertiliser, Mid-cap Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap Metals & Mining Banking Capital Goods Mid-cap Mid-cap Research Associate (Oil & Gas) Research Associate (Cement, Power) Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) Research Associate (FMCG, Media) Research Associate (IT, Telecom) Research Associate (Metals & Mining) Research Associate (Automobile) Research Associate (Banking) Research Associate (FMCG, Media) Research Associate (Capital Goods) [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
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