http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E5%B9%B4%EF%BC%8D2012%E5%B9%B4%E7%92%B0%E7%90%83%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E5%8D%B1%E6%A9%9F
The entire period of the current financial crisis is divided into four phases that differ in intensity of the crisis and sentiment prevailing in the world financial markets. In particular, we distinguish (i) crisis initialization (1 March 2007 – 16 March 2008), (ii) crisis culmination (17 March 2008 – 31 March 2009), (iii) crisis stabilization (1 April 2009 – 31 March 2010), and (iv) crisis fadeout (1 April 2010 – 31 March 2011).
Hence, we are able to compare level of the exchange rate volatility and its character under different market and economic circumstances.
http://www.managertoday.com.tw/?p=10953
從金融海嘯到歐債危機，全球經濟出了哪些問題？
出口導向經濟，也是災難間接兇手
《自食惡果》提到，2002～2007年，全世界充滿了浮濫的資金，信貸氾濫成災，等於告訴大家「過去你負擔不起，但現在燈光已經熄滅，你想幹嘛都沒人會管你！」許多國家因此有了盡情享樂和放縱的機會，於是美國、愛爾蘭、西班牙、葡萄牙都出現了類似的房地產泡沫。
不過，若把全球金融想像成一個大銀行，美國、愛爾蘭這些客戶之所以能借錢炒房，還要在海嘯之後借錢（發公債）來紓困銀行、提高政府支出，最後引發歐債危機，背後又是哪些客戶在努力存款，讓他們有錢可貸？
這個問題便指向引發金融海嘯的第三個因素：出口導向的經濟體。《金融斷層線》指出，經濟體系裡如果都是講求節約生活的人，就不可能繁榮，因為沒人花錢，就不會有人賺得了錢。近年來，美國、英國、西班牙等國家的花費已超過他們賺取的收入，因此只能舉債以弭平落差。而以出口導向為主的中國、德國、日本，以及台灣、南韓等國卻恰好相反。
美國、西班牙、英國等以政策鼓勵負債消費，在不景氣時，更被出口國視為救贖之道。我們依賴其他國家擴增消費來促進經濟成長，外銷產品、賺取外匯後，又用外匯存底買進美國（與其他國家）公債，等於再借錢給這些赤字國消費。然而這種不均衡的發展不可能長久持續，當赤字國少了房價高漲、紙上財富的支撐後，無力再擴增需求，就爆發家庭與政府的債務危機，而出口國也因此陷入不景氣。
The Essay on Financial Crisis and Brazil
... a true prediction. (Xinhua, 2009) Brazil weathered the economic crisis of 2008 comparatively well, but suffered great financial repercussions late ... Brazil’s agricultural exports to China up 52. 5 percent in March” Retrieved June 4th 2009 from China’s people’s Daily website: ... Brazilian economy. (Xinhua, 2009) The increase from March of 2008 (8. 5%) to March of 2009 (12. 5%) amounts of ...
繞了世界一大圈，我們才發現，每天拚外銷訂單的我們，竟也是金融海嘯、歐債危機的間接推手之一，我們也即將承擔歐債危機的部分後果。
（整理‧撰文‧編輯 / 劉揚銘，本文取材自《經理人月刊》2012年2月號）
http://economics.about.com/cs/analysis/a/trade_deficit.htm
Since the U.S. Dollar is weak, shouldn’t that imply we export more than we import (i.e., foreigners get a good exchange rate making US goods relatively cheap).
So why does the U.S. have an enormous trade deficit?
In theory, a fall in the exchange rates will cause foreigners to buy more of our goods and us to buy less foreign goods. When the value of the U.S. Dollar falls relative to other currencies, the U.S. should enjoy a trade surplus, or at least a smaller trade deficit.
The correlation between the exchange rate and the trade deficit was 0.248 for this period. We expect that when the exchange rate goes down, the trade should go up. However a positive correlation between the two indicates that when the exchange rate went down, the trade deficit became larger. So the data does not at all match our expectations.
1. currency crisis is more likely to happen in an economy that does not have enough foreign reserves.
Foreign-exchange reserves (also called forex reserves or FX reserves) are assets held by central banks and monetary authorities, usually in different reserve currencies, mostly the United States dollar, and to a lesser extent the euro, the United Kingdom pound sterling, and the Japanese yen, and used to back its liabilities, e.g., the local currency issued, and the various bank reserves deposited with the central bank, by the government or financial institutions
The correlation between the exchange rate and the trade deficit was 0.248 for this period. We expect that when the exchange rate goes down, the trade should go up. However a positive correlation between the two indicates that when the exchange rate went down, the trade deficit became larger. So the data does not at all match our expectations.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
The Essay on The Story of Foreign Trade and Exchange
For example, because of differences in soil and climate, the United States is better at producing wheat than Brazil, and Brazil is better at producing coffee than the United States. Obviously both countries are better off when Americans produce wheat and exchange a portion of it for some of the coffee that Brazilians produce. But does this mean that a country with an absolute advantage in the ...
(us unemployment rate)
http://www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1023/2/1/8/102321825.html?coluid=4&kindid=20&docid=102321825
非“匯率操縱” 美敲打人民幣可以休矣
中評社北京11月30日電／美國自從2008年爆發金融海嘯以後，中國的人民幣匯率就成了美國經濟問題的替罪羊，美國政客把中國稱為“貨幣操縱國”，他們說：中國工人工資低， “搶走”了美國的就業崗位，中國利用貿易順差買美債，美國人胡亂消費，最終發生了金融海嘯。
大公報刊登評論文章稱，美國政客無視的事實是：金融海嘯源自美寬鬆財政貨幣政策以及華爾街大鱷的貪婪，中國的產品便宜是經濟全球化造成的，中國出口產業是全球供應鏈中的生產和裝配環節，屬於勞動密集型、產業鏈的低端，人民幣升值將使出口成本增加，逐漸失去國際競爭力，企業倒閉，千萬農民工失業，社會動盪。
中國何嘗不想轉向技術服務型，甚至高科技服務型產業，但中國的經濟底子差，社會配套仍未跟上經濟發展，人民消費能力有限，不得不依賴出口去帶動經濟，更何況美國還對華設置高科技壁壘。
文章表示，自2005 年匯改至今，人民幣一直處於單邊升值狀態，人民幣兌美元升值至今已達32.5%。由於出口越來越難以拉動經濟，企業及外資越來越將資金投放於房地產，房地產大幅升值，實際造成了人民幣“對外升值、對內貶值”的怪現象，近些年來通脹率已達5%到6%的水平，而民眾普遍感受到的物價升幅則更高。
文章稱，反觀美國，經歷了金融海嘯，樓價雖跌了不少，股市卻能穩步回升，通脹也只在2%。這就是美元霸權，出口美國的商品只能用美元結算，定價權在美國手中，糧食、水資源、石油、鋼鐵等的定價權也都掌控在美國華爾街的手中，美元長期貶值，美國不僅用美元實行貿易保護主義，更通過美元匯率的波動不斷賺取利益，美國聯儲局在金融海嘯後大印炒票，搞量化寬鬆，浮動匯率已經不再公平和公正，而完全成為美元掠奪世界市場的手段，美國的政客卻不會把這些叫“貨幣操縱”。
http://blog.udn.com/jskj/5786812
誰? 是下個泡沫國家?
http://hk.centanet.com/icms/article-tc-631-43626.aspx
http://www.chinareviewnews.com/doc/1023/2/1/8/102321825.html?coluid=4&kindid=20&docid=102321825
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http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp200_tc.jsp?productCode=FA100095 (UNEMPLOYMENT)
http://www.globalization101.org/the-trade-balance/
http://economics.about.com/cs/analysis/a/trade_canada.htm
We know from “A Beginner’s Guide to Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market” that changes in exchange rates can greatly impact various parts of the economy. This was later confirmed in “A Beginner’s Guide to Purchasing Power Parity Theory” where we saw that a fall in the exchange rates will cause foreigners to buy more of our goods and us to buy less foreign goods. So theory tells us that when the value of the U.S. Dollar falls relative to other currencies, the U.S. should enjoy a trade surplus, or at least a smaller trade deficit.
Canada is by far the largest trading partner of the United States, as the U.S.-Canadian relationship accounts for 20% of all U.S. international trade. If we are going to figure out why the United States still has a large trade deficit, this would be a good place to start.
The Essay on International Trade and Finance Speech 3
One may try to understand what exactly a foreign exchange rate is. To help understand, let’s view a foreign exchange rate as exchanging one dollar at a department store for a product. If one were to go into a department store and purchase a pair of socks in a three pack for one dollar, or each for 33 cents, one would be able to relate that the dollar-to-socks exchange rate is three socks because ...
Canadian-American exchange rate and international trade data for 2002 and 2003 is located on the bottom of this article. The column CDN DOL indicates how many Canadian Dollars can be purchased with 1 U.S. Dollar. An increase in this number represents a strengthened (apperciated) U.S. Dollar, and a decrease in this number represents a weakened (depreciated) one. The column CDN DEF indicates the size of the trade balance the U.S. has with Canada. All the numbers in that column are negative, indicating that the United States has a trade deficit with Canada. The numbers are in millions of U.S. Dollars, so -4907.40 across from Oct-03 indicates that U.S. trade deficit with Canada was 4.9 billion dollars for the month of October 2003.
The American Dollar has depreciated rapidly relative to the Canadian Dollar. In October 2002 1 American Dollar could buy you $1.58 Canadian. The next October, a U.S. Dollar would only fetch $1.32 Canadian, a drop of over 16%. However the balance of trade remained steady over this period, with a trade deficit of $4.3 billion in October 2002 and $4.9 billion in October 2003. We would expect the balance of trade to improve over this period, not get worse! The correlation between the exchange rate and the trade deficit was 0.248 for this period. We expect that when the exchange rate goes down, the trade should go up. However a positive correlation between the two indicates that when the exchange rate went down, the trade deficit became larger. So the data does not at all match our expectations.
It appears that the Canadian data does not lead to any great insights to the trade deficit. We will have to see if the data from the other three countries can help us.
To learn more about American-Canadian Trade you’ll want to read these articles:
Looking into Financial Crisis through Exchange Rate
Looking into Financial Crisis through Exchange Rate
http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s9936.pdf
trade Imbalances and the Global Financial Crisis
https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40173.pdf
Causes of the Financial Crisis
The Term Paper on Australian Exchange Rate Demand Foreign Dollar
... four months that have affected the value of the Australian dollar Exchange Rate: The rate at which one unit of domestic currency is ... an improvement in the terms of trade are generally expected to improve the Current Account Deficit (CAD). This will often result in ... of factors.These factors are: The Size of financial flows into Australia The size of financial flows into Australia from investors who ...
http://wenku.baidu.com/view/c8f267a30029bd64783e2c24.html
2008年国际金融危机产生的三大原因分析
http://wenku.baidu.com/view/d16aaeefe009581b6bd9eb36.html
金融危机产生的原因分析
http://www.opf.slu.cz/kfi/icfb/proc2011/pdf/53_Stavarek.pdf
Exchange Rate Volatility of US Dollar and British Pound during Different
Phases of Financial Crisis
The exchange rate is a macroeconomic variable with multiple influences on the real and financial sector. Exchange rate’s changes, in a fluctuating system, affect the inflation rate, import, export, trade deficit, foreign direct investments, as well as the macroeconomic situation in a country. The fact is that the great foreign currencies income on various bases, before the crisis, enabled a more relaxing exchange rate policy and an easier way to the exchange rate and system stability. However, a sudden fall of foreign currencies income and their outcome growth caused significant depreciation of the US currency.
http://www.translationdirectory.com/articles/article1801.php (Depreciation of US currency)
http://economics.about.com/cs/analysis/a/trade_deficit.htm
Since the U.S. Dollar is weak, shouldn’t that imply we export more than we import (i.e., foreigners get a good exchange rate making US goods relatively cheap).
So why does the U.S. have an enormous trade deficit?
In theory, a fall in the exchange rates will cause foreigners to buy more of our goods and us to buy less foreign goods. When the value of the U.S. Dollar falls relative to other currencies, the U.S. should enjoy a trade surplus, or at least a smaller trade deficit.
The correlation between the exchange rate and the trade deficit was 0.248 for this period. We expect that when the exchange rate goes down, the trade should go up. However a positive correlation between the two indicates that when the exchange rate went down, the trade deficit became larger. So the data does not at all match our expectations.
1. trade imbalance has been shown to be one of the important factors that trigger financial crises
Global financial flows have been characterized in recent years by an unsustainable pattern: some countries (China, Japan, and Germany) run large surpluses every year, while others (like the U.S and UK) run deficits. The U.S. external deficits have been mirrored by internal deficits in the household and government sectors. U.S. borrowing cannot continue indefinitely; the resulting stress underlies current financial disruptions
The Term Paper on Canadian Exchange Rate Price Dollar Ppp
Introduction The Canadian Dollar has undergone a significant depreciation over the past 10 years. The drop in relative value of our currency has caused a great deal of consternation not only among economists but also in the media and consequently the general public has well. Ordinary citizens experience first hand the effects of such depreciation every time they go to our most frequented vacation ...
demonstrating quite clearly that, although exports increased from 1995-2000, imports increased more, producing a sizeable trade deficit by the end of the decade
trade deficits are harmful
1. Trade deficits are often interpreted as a sign of a nation’s economic weakness. They are said to reflect an excessive reliance on products made by others, and to result from deficiencies in the home country’s economic output. In the eyes of many labor supporters, an excess of imports over exports comes at the expense of domestic production and jobs. Some people argue that the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs in the United States over the past several decades is due to the trade deficit.
2. Trade deficits represent a sacrifice of future growth. Because a nation with a trade deficit is purchasing more than it produces, investment in future growth is being traded for consumption in the present.
3. Large trade deficits create an environment conducive to financial crises that could damage the U.S. economy.
According to this view, when the United States runs a large trade deficit, foreign sellers of goods and services simultaneously accumulate large amounts of U.S. dollars. These dollars cannot be spent inside their own countries, so they need to be invested somewhere. Much of this trade deficit-driven accumulation of dollars is used to purchase American stocks and bonds, pieces of American companies, and other U.S. assets.
How Does the U.S. Trade Deficit (with China) Affect the U.S. Economy?
The U.S. trade deficit with China means that U.S. companies that can’t compete with cheap Chinese goods must either lower their costs or go out of business. To lower their costs, many companies have started outsourcing jobs to India and China, adding to U.S. unemployment. Other industries have simply dried up. U.S. manufacturing, as measured by the number of jobs, declined 34% between 1998 and 2010. As these industries declined, so has U.S.
The potential for instability arises if foreign investors in U.S. assets begin to worry that a persistent trade deficit is going to make the U.S. dollar less valuable relative to currencies in other countries. If this concern prompts a lot of foreign investors to sell their U.S. assets at the same time (in the hope of reinvesting the proceeds somewhere else), then the value of the U.S. dollar could fall substantially in a short period of time.
The Essay on Trade Deficit Protectionist Policy
In November of 2004, the United States ran a fifty-four billion dollar trade deficit, translating to over 600 billion for the entire year. This deficit is a result of the disparity between the amount of goods that the US imports and the amount it exports. To equalize this deficit in its current account, the American government sells assets from its capital account, often to foreign investors. This ...
Counter Argument (Hold)
1. Consumers, particularly in the United States, can enjoy a higher living standard than they would if limited to domestically produced goods and services;
2. Trade deficits have rarely sparked financial crises in advanced industrial countries; and
3. Trade deficits can be a sign of economic strength; as imports tend to increase rapidly during times of economic growth when consumers and firms have more money to spend on foreign as well as domestic goods.
This argument is consistent with the experience of the United States during the second half of the 1990s, when a booming economy and rising employment were accompanied by record import levels and trade deficits.
2. currency crisis is more likely to happen in an economy that does not have enough foreign reserves.
Foreign-exchange reserves (also called forex reserves or FX reserves) are assets held by central banks and monetary authorities, usually in different reserve currencies, mostly the United States dollar, and to a lesser extent the euro, the United Kingdom pound sterling, and the Japanese yen, and used to back its liabilities, e.g., the local currency issued, and the various bank reserves deposited with the central bank, by the government or financial institutions
