This paper examines the influence of the media, and opinion polls, on elections.
IIntroduction
What determines who wins elections? Do the candidates who espouse the clearest policies win? Or do the candidates win when they resonate with the voters? Do they address serious issues, or are elections becoming popularity contests? It seems to many observers that elections are won by those who look good and sound good, whether or not they have coherent policies in mind.
This paper briefly examines the recent elections in Britain and Ireland, and whether or not it is true that the media, and opinion polls, were major factors in determining the outcome.
IIThe Disconnect
One of the most disturbing trends in the United States is the fact that increasingly large numbers of qualified voters don’t bother to go to the polls. My research indicates—to my surprise, I must admit—that this is occurring in the U.K. as well. It seems to be a function of the same kind of “disconnect” that we experience: the idea that one vote does not make a difference, and that the ordinary citizen can no longer influence his government.
IIIElections, Polls and Apathy
It’s difficult to know where to look to ascribe blame for the lack of interest in the political process. One source suggests that voter apathy actually arises out of a sense, not that things are bad, but that they’re good. When the economy is strong, people have jobs, and there is a sense of well being, voters are unlikely to look for a change. They want things to continue as they are.
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In the June 2001 elections in Britain, Tony Blair was re-elected by a landslide. It seems that his re-election had less to do with his policies than with the fact that there was nothing much offered in opposition to him. CBS news correspondent Kimberly Dozier offered an analysis of Blair’s success by first pointing to his failures, and to the uncertainty that surrounds any political process today. At the time of the election, Blair had left many of his election promises unfulfilled. School systems weren’t good; crime was up; and one of his advisers had to resign amid a scandal. Gas taxes were so high that a gallon of gas cost twice what it does in the U.S. But still Blair led in the polls from the moment the race began, held that lead, and won re-election by a landslide. (Dozier, PG).
Why?
“And simply, no one expects much anymore. The initial euphoria at voting in the squeaky-clean Labour Party has long since been replaced by disillusionment. People concluded “They’re just as bad as the other guys, so why change?” Like the current White House, the Blair administration often manages to look good because the public’s expectations are so low.” (Dozier, PG).
There are a couple of things here that are worth noting. First, there is the idea that all politicians are ruthless liars, and there’s no point in looking for good ones because they don’t exist. This mindset means that elections are basically useless, and encourages voters to stay home in droves. And secondly, the polls tend to drive elections, rather than simply reporting public opinion. By that I mean that if people perceive that a candidate has a huge lead in the polls, they often decide to stay home, since they know that their vote will not help him win. This is mistaken—precincts can be won or lost on a single vote—but the perception is that one vote doesn’t matter.
Another source also decries the low turnout, which was estimated to be around 60 percent. In Britain in recent times, turnout has run between approximately 70 and 77 percent. (In the U.S., it’s below 40 percent.) Low voter turnout and an apathetic citizenry are not good for any country.
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“Turnout is low — there’s something sick in the heart of our politics,” Paddy Ashdown, former Liberal Democrat leader, told Sky News. Labor parliamentarian Tam Dalyell said the low turnout “speaks volumes about the low respect that politicians are now held.” (“Blair’s Labor Party Wins British Elections,” PG).
In Ireland, similar feelings seem to have resulted in another poor voter showing. The general election returned the Fianna Fail party to power, despite the fact that there have been “numerous” findings of corruption among its politicians recently. “The feel-good factor from nearly a decade of ‘Celtic Tiger’ economic success means that in general there is satisfaction…” (“Ireland,” PG).
Here it is again: if things are okay, don’t change.
The main opposition party, Fine Gael, tried to focus on the “bad state of hospitals countrywide and the appalling hospital waiting lists,” (“Ireland,” PG) but this wasn’t enough to counteract the complacency of the voters who were doing well economically.
IVOpinion Polls
It’s been surprisingly difficult to find information concerning the specific influence of opinion polls on elections. The voter apathy that I’ve described above is reported in the polls, and may increase the phenomenon by dwelling on it.
Legislators are concerned with this effect. The Irish Parliament debated an amendment that would prohibit taking and publishing an opinion poll within seven days of an election day; or of publishing a poll that had previously been taken but not disclosed. Although the amendment was withdrawn, its consideration indicates the seriousness with which polls are regarded: “…there is anecdotal evidence that opinion polls influence elections. In the case of the British general election, the media reported that the opinion poll before the election encouraged voters not to vote. That is probably the most worrying aspect of opinion poll outcomes.” (“Parliamentary Debates 2001,” PG).
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I found the debate about the amendment, which was heated. Opponents protested that prohibiting opinion polls for seven days before an election could be construed as interfering with a person’s rights to free expression, and thus could not be supported. (The amendment failed.) Opponents also said that they could think of only one instance in which this practice might be harmful; they cited the U.S. practice of taking exit polls and releasing the results in the East before polls have closed in the West. (“Parliamentary Debates,” PG).
Another source says that there is no definitive answer to the question of whether or not opinion polls influence voting behavior. (Donsbach, PG).
(This is a German study; very extensive.) They too mention the phenomenon of voters in the Western U.S. being influenced by exit polls in the East, but see no other problems in connection with opinion polls and their influence on voters.
VConclusion
Although there seems to be a widespread perception that opinion polls influence voters, the limited number of articles I’ve found indicate that they really have little effect. The single exception seems to be the phenomenon of the voters in the Western United States being influenced by exit polls in the East, but this wouldn’t have any importance for British or Irish voters. Therefore, although it seems attractive to castigate pollsters for wielding undue influence over voters, the reality is that polls, at least according to the parliamentarians who debated the issue, have little real effect on the outcome of a U.K. election.
VReferences
“Blair’s Labor Party Wins British Elections.” Houston Chronicle.com [Web site]. 7 Jun 2001. Accessed: 8 Jan 2003. http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/world/934306
Donsbach, Wolfgang. “Who’s Afraid of Election Polls?” Foundation for Information [Web site]. 2001. Accessed: 13 Jan 2003. http://www.esomar.nl/PDF/FIElectionPolls2001.pdf
Dozier, Kimberly. “British Elections a Yawner.” CBS News.com [Web site]. 10 May 2001. Accessed: 8 Jan 2003. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2001/05/10/london/main290576.shtml
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“Ireland: Sinn Fein Strengthened in Irish Elections.” Workers Power Global {Web site]. 19 May 2002. Accessed: 8 Jan 2003. http://www.workerspower.com/wpglobal/IrelandElectionMay02.html
“Parliamentary Debates.” Houses of the Oireachtas [Web site]. 6 Feb 1992. Accessed: 13 Jan 2003. http://www.oireachtas-debates.gov.ie/index.html?http://www.oireachtas-debates.gov.ie/S/0131/S.0131.199202060006.html
“Parliamentary Debates 2001.” Parliament of Ireland [Web site]. 2001. Accessed: 13 Jan 2003. http://www.irlgov.ie/debates-01/16oct/sect3.htm
