Customer Demands DEMAND MANAGEMENT Costs: • building plants • operating plants Tactics Technological Change: • rate (including breakthroughs) • direction Control 2 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 5 http://factory -physics. com © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 http://factory -physics. com Capacity Management Issues Volume: • relative to demand • safety capacity Predictions and Assumptions (cont. ) Competition: • likely behavior • anticipated reactions Timing: • lead or follow demand • relative to process technology changes Suppliers: • costs • availability • partnering/contracts
Configuration: • spatial distribution • vendoring • layout Flexibility: • volume (scalability) • mix (flexibility) © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 3 http://factory -physics. com © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 6 http://factory -physics. com 1 Strategic Capacity Planning Market Share: • how much of total market to aim for? • effect on competitors market share Calculation (cont. ) Example: Suppose capacity costs $1/yr for each unit of productive capacity and lost sales result in $3 per unit. Then Timing: • lead • match • follow cs ? c o 3 ? 1 = = 0. 67 cs 3
So we should choose capacity slightly above the mean forecast (which would correspond to the ratio 0. 5) Increments: • • • • process considerations economies of scale exposure to risk defensive value 7 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 Note: This is very rough, since cs and co may change based on how much capacity is installed (e. g. , economies of scale) and may be influenced by the future (e. g. , failure to meet demand now may affect future sales).
The Term Paper on Mark Twain 6
When to analyze the works of Mark Twain, it becomes clear that the author’s style is simple and direct. Indeed, the author is very successful in convening his thoughts to the reader. Henry Nash Smith, the critique of Mark Twain’s style once made a remark that Mark Twain’s style is “as close as we are likely to get to the writer’s actual experience … ” (Smith 19). Richard Bridgman’s ...
But it gives a rough idea of whether we should aim for a large or small capacity cushion. 10 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 http://factory -physics.
com http://factory -physics. com Strategic Capacity Planning (cont. ) Type: • matching technology to market • flexibility Market Share Example Situation: In 1966 Zenith faced • Industry sales for color TV’s had doubled each year for 3 years. • Total demand greater than 5 million annually by 1966. • • • • • Zenith had maintained a 20% market share. Capacity of 1 million/year (4,000/day) was stretched to limit. Industry demand expected to increase to 7 -10 million in next 2 years. Selling price of $370/unit. After tax profit rate of 7% of sales. Location: • make or buy? • expansion or new facility? • global strategy
Proposal: expand 2 existing plants and add new plant to bring capacity to 7,300 per day. New plant would cost $6 million and would have capacity of 2,100 per day. 8 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 11 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 http://factory -physics. com http://factory -physics. com Market Share Calculation Notation: • cs = cost per unit short (e. g. , lost sales) • co = cost per unit over (e. g. , wasted capacity) Market Share Example (cont. ) Analysis: cs = 2,100 ? $370 ? 250 ? 0. 07 = $13,597,500 per year annual profit from new plant annual cost of new plant co = $6,000,000 ?
Capacity should be added to have roughly 90% probability of being able to meet 1968 demand. This means capacity of something over 9,000 sets per day. So, proposed increase and then some would ap pear to make sense. Problem: implicitly assumes uniform distribution of demand. Fails to consider competition. 9 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 12 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 http://factory -physics.
Capacity Timing Lead Demand: • create “capacity cushion” – planned underutilization • accommodate surges in demand • attract new business – take market share from competitors • likelihood of falling short roughly equal to likelihood of having too much capacity • could require OT, extra shifts, scrambling, etc. to make up difference • • • • negative capacity cushion conservative with regard to forecast assures high utilization, higher return on investment But, can lead to erosion of market share http://factory -physics. com capacity capacity capacity Developing a Capacity Strategy
The Business plan on Capacity and Demand Planning in Coca- Cola
Coca-Cola is an American multinational beverage corporation that was found on 1892 by Asa Candler and is a manufacturer, retailer and marketer of non-alcoholic beverage concentrates and syrups. Coca-Cola operate in a make- to -stock enviroment. This process can help to provide faster service to customers from available stock and lower costs considering Coke normally has a distribution process of ...
Caveat: modeling/analysis can help, but can only be part of the picture, since we cannot forecast the future. time Basic Strategies: 1. Peak: don’t build until need develops. • “safe” strategy • but can cause synchronization with competition and high costs/risks 2. Countercyclical: add at lower point in business cycle when firm and competitors have excess capacity. • riskier? • reduced costs but can backfire Meet Demand: time Lag Demand: time 13 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 16 http://factory -physics. com © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 Economies of Scale
Short-Term: In short-term, almost everything (labor, equipment, insurance, etc. ) is fixed: Developing a Capacity Strategy (cont. ) 3. Long Haul: match or lag demand, but on average not for short-term. • easier to be right over long haul than in near term • better planning 4. Follow the Leader:build when they build. • prevents competition from gaining an advantage • can backfire (e. g. , oil tanker purchases in 1970’s, 1973 war ? price increases ? conservation, falling demand).
fixed cost + variable cost unit cost = throughput fixed cost = + variable unit cost throughput so, short-term unit costs decrease with throughput.
Intermediate-Term: In the intermediate-term, utilization of a resource depends on run lengths, so given changeover cost and run length of a particular product, unit cost can be expressed as: Unit cost = changeovercost + runningcost per unit units per run which is increasing in setup cost and decreasing in run length. 14 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 17 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 http://factory -physics. com http://factory -physics. com Economies of Scale (cont. ) Long -Term: are functions of plant equipment. Equipment cost as a function o f the capacity can be approximated by
The Essay on Mark Twain 10
1835-1910 Samuel Clemens was born on November 30, 1835 in Florida, Missouri, the sixth of seven children. At the age of four, Sam and his family moved to the small frontier town of Hannibal, Missouri on the banks of the Mississippi River. Missouri, at the time, was a fairly new state (it had gained statehood in 1820) and comprised part of the country's western border. It was also a slave state. ...
Causes of Overbuilding Manufacturing Capacity Technological Factors: • • • • • adding capacity in large increments economies of scale long lead times in adding capacity min efficient scale increasing over time changes in production technology Competitive Factors: • • • • large number of firms lack of credible market leaders entry of new competitors advantages of being an early mover K (C) = aC b where b is typically between 0. 6 and 1. Thus, cost per unit is: K( C) = aC b? 1 C Since b is usually less than one, this implies that unit cost tends to decrease with capacity.
That is, larger plants are more efficien t than small ones. However, there are diseconomies of scale, such as material handling, communication, risk. Unit cost = Information Flow Factors: • • • • • inflation of future expectations divergent assumptions or perceptions breakdown of market signaling structural change financial community pressures Structural Factors: • • • • • • significant exit barriers motivation from suppliers building credibility with customers integrated competitors effect of capacity share on market share effect of age/type of capacity on demand
Governmental Factors: • perverse tax incentives • desire for indigenous industry • pressures to increase/maintain employment Managerial Factors: 15 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 • mgmt background and industry exp • attitude toward different types of risk © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 18 http://factory -physics. com http://factory -physics. com 3 Integrating with Business Strategy Capacity as Strategic Weapon: • supply can create demand (“invest and grow”) • preemptive weapon (prevent smaller competitors from adding capacity) Traditional Approach
Formulation: min cost capacity feasible solution min Total Equipment Cost subject to: r e(i) ? TH, for all stations i Location Decisions: • move into geographic market • transportation costs • attractive locales to recruit talent Details: re (i) = m(i) ? TH te (i) m( i) ? TH ? t e( i) Leadtime Dimension: • competing on quality/responsiveness requires capacity cushion 19 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 22 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 http://factory -physics. com http://factory -physics. com Traditional vs. Modern View of Capacity 100 % Traditional Approach (cont.
The Essay on Heat Capacity
Keith Griswold March 13, 2000 Exp. Physical Chem. Dr. Humphrey Heat-Capacity Ratios for Gases Cp = Cv + R The ratio, Cp = Cv is related to the ability of the gas to do expansion work. Heat capacity at constant volume, Cv can be described using the equipartition theory, which states that each mode of motion will contribute to a molecule or atom’s energy. E = E(translational) + ...
Provide basis for better optimization approach. Add machine at i* . 3. If CT feasible, stop. Else go to (2).
25 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 28 © Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000 http://factory -physics. com http://factory -physics. com Other Capacity Dimensions Law (Buffering): Any manufacturing system with variability will have buffers in some combination of the following forms: 1. Inventory (and CT) 2. Capacity (low utilization, lost sales) 3. Time (long lead times) Implications: There are other ways to improve CT performance of a system.
