Summary: Andrew Kydd and Barbara Walter, “The Strategies of Terrorism,”
There is a good summary in the conclusion of the article (last 3 pages) as well.
Terrorism in this article is defined as: as the use of violence against civilians by non-state actors to attain political goals
• The first statement made in this article is the fact that terrorism often works.
o There are quite some examples of countries listening to the demands of terrorist (such as the withdrawal of US Marines from Lebanon in 1983)
• To make effective counter terrorism strategies it is important to understand why terrorism works and how it works
o Terrorism works not simply because it in stills fear in target populations, but because is causes governments and individuals to respond in ways that aid the terrorist’s cause
Core argument in this article: “…Terrorist violence is a form of costly signalling. Terrorists are too weak to impose their will directly by force of arms. They are sometimes strong enough, however, to persuade audiences to do as they wish by altering the audience’s beliefs about such matters as the terrorist’s ability to impose costs and their degree of commitment to their cause.” So terrorism alters the cost/benefit calculation of state’s and individuals. Only making threats isn’t enough for terrorist, that sometimes need to take actions to prove how far they are willing to go to obtain their results.
1. What types of goals do terrorists seek to achieve?
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i. Regime change
1. The overthrow of a government and its replacement with one led by the terrorists
2. E.g. Marxist groups
ii. Territorial change
1. Taking territory away from a state either to establish a new state or join another state
2. E.g. Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka
iii. Policy change
1. “Policy change is a broader category of lesser demands, such as al-Qaida’s demand that the United States drop its support for Israel and corrupt Arab regimes such as Saudi Arabia”
iv. Social control
1. Social control constrains the behaviour of individuals, rather than the state
2. E.g. antiabortion groups
v. Status quo maintenance
1. Maintenance is the support of an existing regime or a territorial arrangement against political groups that seek to change it
2. E.g. Protestant paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland against the IRA
2. what strategies do they pursue to achieve these goals?
i. Because talk is cheap, states and terrorists who wish to influence the behavior of an adversary must resort to costly signals
1. Costly signals are actions so costly that bluffers and liars are unwilling to take them (so only the really dedicated)
ii. Terrorists play to two key audiences:
1. Governments whose policies they wish to influence.
2. Individuals on the terrorists’ own side whose support or obedience they seek to gain.
iii. There are 5 strategies that terrorist use (see figure 1)
1. Attrition (the battle of willpower)
a. The strategy is to inflict costs on the enemy until you get what you want the greater the costs inflicted, the more likely the enemy is to withdraw
b. A war of attrition strategy is more effective against some targets than others. Three variables are likely to figure in the outcome:
i. the state’s level of interest in the issue under dispute (tates with only peripheral interests at stake often capitulate to terrorist demands; states with more important interests at stake rarely do)
ii. the constraints on its ability to retaliate (The more constrained the targeted government is in its use of force, the less costly an attrition strategy is, and the longer the terrorists can hold out in the hopes of achieving their goal)
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1. Democracies are more constrained than non-democracies
iii. its sensitivity to the costs of violence (Governments that are able to absorb heavier costs and hold out longer are less inviting targets for an attrition strategy)
c. 5 counterstrategies against Attrition
i. Concede. The targeted government can concede inessential issues in exchange for peace, a strategy that we believe is frequently pursued though rarely admitted. In some cases, the terrorists will genuinely care more about the disputed issue and be willing to outlast the target. But his can make a targeted state look weak.
ii. Retaliation. Retaliation can target the leadership of the terrorist group, its followers, their assets, and other objects of value. Care must be taken, however, that the retaliation is precisely targeted, because the terrorist organization could simultaneously be pursuing a strategy of provocation. A harsh, indiscriminate response might make a war of attrition more costly for the terrorists, but it would also harm innocent civilians who might then serve as willing recruits for the terrorists.
iii. Minimize costs by preventing attacks
iv. deny terrorists access to the most destructive weapons
v. states can strive to minimize the psychological costs of terrorism and the tendency people have to overreact. The changes that you will die in a terrorist attack are extremely low.
2. Intimidation. Intimidation is akin to the strategy of deterrence, preventing some undesired behavior by means of threats and costly signals. It works by demonstrating that the terrorists have the power to punish whoever disobeys them
a. It is about scaring people to do something or stop doing something
b. In weaker states intimidation is more likely to happen. Terrorist use it to make the population supporting them.
c. The best response to intimidation is to retake territory from the rebels and strengthening law enforcement. Ambiguity about who is in charge should be minimized
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3. Provocation. It is designed to persuade the domestic audience that the target is evil and must be resisted.
a. To succeed a terrorist organization must first convince moderate citizens that their government needs to be replaced.
b. terrorists seek to goad the target government into a military response that harms civilians within the terrorist organization’s home territory.
4. Spoiling. The goal is to ensure that peace overtures between moderate leaders on the terrorists’ side and the target government do not succeed. Terrorists resort to a spoiling strategy when relations between two enemies are improving and a peace agreement threatens the terrorists’ more far-reaching goals
a. Spoiling works by persuading the enemy that moderates on the terrorists’ side cannot be trusted to abide by a peace deal.
b. Strategies that build trust and reduce vulnerability are the best response to spoiling.
5. Outbidding. Outbidding arises when two key conditions hold: two or more domestic parties are competing for leadership of their side, and the general population is uncertain about which of the groups best represents their interests.
a. Terrorist organizations use violence to signal their commitment to a cause.