“Power crises in Pakistan”
Pakistan is in the grip of severe power crisis. Followings are some solution of power crisis in Pakistan. In the 1990s two approaches were postulated by power experts to tackle power shortages of developing countries.
The private sector should be allowed to set up power plants with their own equity and loans based on project feasibility with the government’s role limited to determining a fair price of power through an independent commission of representatives of the government, citizens, industry, power producers and experts by consensus. This model was advocated for developing countries where corruption is rampant.
The second model was for countries with less corruption where the government would regulate and control power production while guaranteeing fuel supply for power plants through individual agreements. Thus the government would retain control over the power supply network.
Unfortunately, the then government chose the second approach for obvious reasons resulting in the present power crisis. Instead of resorting to lip-service, concrete planning to supply uninterrupted power at reasonable tariffs is essential for industrial and economic growth.
There are many power crises:
* electricity load shedding
* natural gas shortage
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* Water shortage
Electricity load shedding:
Recently the worst power shortage and load shedding in response hit the country. The power requirement of country in these days is about 16500 Mega Watts (MW) but the production is down to all time low in recent times which is just 7500 MW. In response the electricity load shedding of hours is being observed all over the country.
Most affected in recent times are the business people and industries, which are all shut down due to power outages. Common people who rely on power for their living are most affected and furious; hence loads of people have hit the roads once again to remind the current government of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) about their unfulfilled promises of putting an end to electricity load shedding.
The situation is more worse than before, in past this country had been producing more than 14000 MW of power but now this capability is down to just 7500 MW. Recently, four of power plants which run on oil were reportedly idle due to stoppage of fuel provision.
This power situation is affecting the whole country and people all over Pakistan which include cities like Lahore, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Karachi and many more have hit the roads on past day. Instead of understanding the misery they are going through, protesters were met with power and police force was used against protesters. Many protesters were beat down by the police using sticks especially in Lahore.
The point is weather still Pakistan will be given with the solution to their power needs or people will still have to live in darkness in this country in 21st century. Pakistan has got loads of natural resources, Cole is just one example, plus this country is Nuclear Power. Production of required power and much more must not be an issue of this country but the issue has to be seriously picked up by a worthy and caring administration. Current PPP administration seems to be failed till now in that. They still have half the time left to make things happen and give the people of Pakistan what they deserve.
Summer 2012 is just starting and electricity load shedding in Pakistan already started to intensify. Power load shedding of 12 hours is already in place in many areas of country , PEPCO claimed that electricity short fall is 2500 Mega Watts (MW) already. We are just into April, May at the moment as we head towards the hotter months of summer like June, July and August the electricity shortfall is going to reach 6000 MW or even above. Real long hours of load shedding are expected in coming months.
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Already we are experiencing the worst load shedding of history of Pakistan, now question comes in mind “who is responsible for all of this?”. Before we conclude lets have a look on some facts related to the issue.
Its a known fact that along with house hold consumers the Industry of Pakistan is effected badly due to load shedding. Putting the production of very much critical goods in jeopardy. But the DG PEPCO (Pakistan Electric Power Company) while talking to a private TV channel evening talk show on 25th of April denied the fact that Load Shedding ever affected any Industry of Pakistan. Also he confirmed that load shedding will increase in coming days if supply of oil and gas is not restored to full required level.
DG PEPCO also said we need to put more load on consumer, only that way we can get around the issue of load shedding. According to him they are giving Rs. 2 plus subsidy to people and need to finish it and bring price to more than 9 Rs per unit from current 7.05 for house hold consumers. Also DG PEPCO blamed on the line losses and few defaulters the cause of load shedding. While it was discussed that President house is one of the defaulters of PEPCO, he tried to defend the ruling party (Pakistan Peoples Party).
If we look into this once again, not just a feeling but putting forward the fact like “who have to make sure oil is supplied to the PEPCO” also “who have to make sure the support of gas to PEPCO” and also “who have to facilitate the PEPCO to look forward into alternate/clean energy sources like Thermal/Solar energy”, the only entity responsible for all of this is Government of Pakistan.
The party in power which calls it self the “Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) ” seems to do nothing. Either its provision of Oil and gas to the PEPCO or the future planning and thinking about opting the alternate energy sources like Thermal and Solar energy, this party is doing nothing but is just silent spectator of bad situation of People of Pakistan. BTW PPP seems to do nothing on any of project which interests people of Pakistan.
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According the to PEPCO they can’t give any time line when they will be able to cope with the issue of electricity, in fact they are not sure even it will ever happen. Rightly so, when the party in power is not concerned about condition of people and doing nothing on its end, then Newton’s first law comes in, telling us, someone have got to do this, this will never happen itself.
A recent Gilani poll conducted by Gallup Pakistan, shows that 43% of all Pakistanis claim to be affected by more than 8 hours of load shedding, 25% complain of 6-8 hours without electricity, 27% of 3- 5 hours and 4% of 1-2 hours. 1% has given no response. The figures reflect their perceptions and may or may not correspond with the real load shedding durations. A recent Gilani poll conducted by Gallup Pakistan, shows that 43% of all Pakistanis claim to be affected by more than 8 hours of load shedding, 25% complain of 6-8 hours without electricity, 27% of 3- 5 hours and 4% of 1-2 hours. 1% has given no response. The figures reflect their perceptions and may or may not correspond with the real load shedding durations.
Natural Gas shortage:
Pakistan’s economic self-reliance mainly depends on the self sufficiency in its energy requirements as those provide oxygen for the national economy. The dream to bring prosperity in Pakistan has been shattered by energy shortages, which are sinking the country into the quicksand of poverty. Pakistan’s daily gas requirement is 6.5 billion cubic feet (BCF), against its current supply of 4 BCF, depicting a shortfall of 2.5 BCF. It is predicted that Pakistan’s domestic gas production will fall from the current level of 4 billion cubic feet per day (cfd) to 2 billion cfd by 2020. Demand, on the other hand, is expected to soar to 8 billion cfd by that time, creating a 6 billion cfd deficit. Pakistan’s Petroleum Minister Dr Asim Hussain, in a recent statement has acknowledged that the country is currently facing a gas shortage of 700 mmcfd, even though it has discovered gas reserves of 500 mmcfd, which could not yet be injected into the economy because of litigation and pricing issues. Pakistan meets 85 per cent of its energy requirements through imported petroleum products, resulting in a huge drain on foreign exchange. So far, our strategy is all about curbing demand through load management plans and policies which always has adverse impacts on the national economy. No significant efforts are seen to focus on improving the supply side.
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Presently, the demand-supply gap in the energy sector has reached one of its highest levels in the country. This gap subsequently produced a huge shortage of power that has adversely affected the economy. The crippling economy was further damaged when many industrial units had to be shut down, rendering thousands of the skilled workers jobless. A fair number of investors have relocated their units to Bangladesh to take advantage of uninterrupted electricity supply and cheap labour. Consequently, this ongoing chain-reaction of crises is accelerating inflation and contributing to a rise in the cost of living to new heights.
The gas shortage in the country is not an over-night phenomenon as experts had predicted the imminent crisis well before time, in 2006. Hagler Bailly, a global management consulting firm based in Islamabad, released its study report in 2006 saying that Pakistan is going to witness a gas shortage starting 2007, and the demand-supply gap will continue to grow every year to stand-still the by 2025, when shortage will reach a level of 11,092 MMCFD (million standard cubic feet per day) against total 13,259 MMCFD production. The report added that Pakistan’s gas shortage would worsen in the next two decades if it did not manage to produce energy from alternative sources. What we are experiencing today is the vindication of Hagler Bailly who warned us as early as 2006.
An expert opinion says that demand for natural gas in Pakistan increased by almost 10 per cent annually from 2000-01 to 2007-08, reaching around 3,200m cubic feet per day (MMCFD) last year, against total production of 3,774 MMCFD, according to . But, during 2008-2009, the demand for natural gas exceeded the available supply, with production of 4,528 MMCFD gas against demand for 4,731 MMCFD, indicating a shortfall of more than 200 MMCFD. As the winter is approaching, Sui Northern Gas sources have reportedly told that the company has to tackle a shortfall of 700 MMCFD of gas due to increasing use of heaters and geysers.
Despite an early warning and a clear indication of the hovering energy crisis, Pakistani authorities did not bother to take a serious action against the threat which has fractured our industry and exports. Under these circumstances, the significance of Pakistan Iran gas pipeline project has increased manifold as it is the only viable option to provide an extra amount of gas to the system. But it is unfortunate to observe that lethargy, inaction and a sense of indecisiveness have collectively caused an inordinate delay in the project and have further worsened the crisis. If Pakistani leadership sincerely wanted to steer the country clear of the energy crisis, it might have completed its part of the pipeline project and it could have been functional today. The authorities say that the project will be completed by 2014 but the reality is that due to the slow pace of progress on the Pakistani side that seems unlikely. Iran, on the other hand, has undertaken its commitment by completing the laying of 1,000 kilometers up to the Pakistani border. “Iran could now export electricity to Pakistan if it could be connected with the country’s grid system”, said Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran’s foreign minister during his recent visit to Islamabad. “The project has almost reached the borders of Pakistan,” he added. The two sides signed an export deal in 2009 for Iran to supply natural gas to its eastern neighbour from 2014, with sales to reach 750 million cubic feet (21 million cubic metres) to one billion cubic feet per day by mid-2015. The finalised project, in 2007, included India and Pakistan as the beneficiaries of the Iranian gas but India withdrew from the project over pricing and security issues. Following a civilian nuclear deal with the in 2008, India quit the project in 2009. Iran has particularly expressed interest in the People’s Republic of China’s participation in the project.
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Water shortage:
According to a report, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank listed Pakistan as one of the water stressed countries in the world. Pakistan is likely to face water shortage in the upcoming five years due to a dearth of water for irrigation, industrial activities and domestic consumption.
According to a World Bank report, the water supply in Pakistan has fallen from 5000 cubic metres per capita to 1000 cubic metres during year 2010, creating an alarming situation. It is said that if water supply is to fall below 1000 cubic metres per person each year, the country would be on the edge of a massive water scarcity. It is our duty to utilize water in a very responsible and wise manner as Pakistan has been declared a state under severe water crisis. We find people wasting water at homes, offices, markets and factories. People will leave the tap running and not pay heed to the water being wasted.
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Among the factors that to the reduced water availability in Pakistan are increasing population, climate change, and shortage of water reservoirs and India’s manipulation of Jhelum and Chenab rivers. In Islamabad, 30 million gallons of water goes wasted due to broken pipelines. Immediate work needs to be done to rehabilitate the obsolete network of water supply. So as to save the 30 million gallons of water, that is getting wasted everyday.
This mobile video is projecting the water scarcity at district Jamshoro. The man told that they are facing serious water shortage. The situation is so grave that they are compelled to fill buckets from a standing river. Since the community got displaced due to floods so they have this contaminated water available for drinking purposes. During election time, leaders come and give tall claims that they will provide clean drinking water but nothing concrete has come out as yet.
A water crisis is emerging which could have major implications for Pakistan’s economy and society. Effective management of this crisis first requires urgent mitigation and adaptation measures with close cooperation amongst Pakistan’s provinces of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Sindh on the one hand and then between Pakistan and India on the other. If the necessary collaboration for cooperative management of the Indus basin water resources is not undertaken expeditiously, the resultant economic crisis could lead to a war with India.
The problem of water scarcity in the Indus basin is predicated partly on the inherent limitations of water supply in the Indus River System and partly on the growing water demand associated with inefficient water use in the process of economic and population growth. Unsustainable development practices have exacerbated the problem with intrusion of salinity into the ground water, contamination of aquifers with harmful chemicals such as fluoride and arsenic and pollution of surface water due to lack of an institutional framework for environmentally safe disposal of urban and industrial waste. An important dimension of the water issue in the years ahead is the phenomenon of climate change, which could take the crisis to a critical level.
Water scarcity can be measured by the availability of water compared with the generally accepted minimum per capita requirement of 1,700 cubic metres per person per year. In their book, Freshwater Under Threat: South Asia, Mukand S Babel and Shahriar M Wahid have estimated that the per capita availability of water in the Indus basin is 1,329 cubic metres per capita per year. This is significantly below the threshold requirement. Another interesting indicator of the water problem is the measure of development pressure on water resources, which is the percentage of available water supply relative to the total water resources. This ratio is as high as 89 per cent for the Indus basin compared to only 15 per cent for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin. This indicates the relatively greater development pressure on the Indus basin.
Worse, the utilization of water for production is also highly inefficient by global standards. Water use efficiency is measured in terms of the GDP per unit of water used. In the case of the five top food producers in the world (Brazil, China, France, Mexico and the US) the water use efficiency is $23.8 per cubic metre. The figure is as low as $3.34 for the Indus basin.
The problem of water scarcity is expected to become more acute in the future due to the adverse impact of climate change. Dr Leena Srivastava, in a recent research paper, provides evidence to show that some of the Himalayan glaciers are melting more rapidly than the global average and this could increase the frequency of floods in the short run and increase water shortages in the long term by reducing river flows in South Asia. Furthermore, according to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, given the sensitivity of existing seeds to heat, global warming could result in a 30 per cent reduction in the food crops.
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Science and empirical evidence make clear that existing water scarcity, when combined with the impact of climate change, could place critical stress on the economy and society of Pakistan in particular and South Asia in general: major food shortages, increased frequency of natural disasters, large scale dislocations of population and destabilizing contention between upper and lower riparian regions.
Effective management of this crisis in Pakistan requires close cooperation with India in joint watershed management, increasing the efficiency of irrigation and water use, joint development of technologies, sustainable agriculture practices and institutional arrangements to manage food shortages as well as natural disasters. When faced with a common threat, ideology must be replaced by rationality in the conduct of governance. If we fail to do so, natural disasters could trigger the man-made catastrophe of war.
Solution of power crises in Pakistan:
The following measures can help to reduce the problem at the earliest:
Out of 18,000 MW installed capacity, only 5,000 MW is being produced from hydel, nuclear and gas energy and about 6,500 MW from oil. Since oil-based generation is the costliest, contracts should be
Renegotiated with the IPPs which have installed capacity. But as they were being paid lower rates they have been shut down due to increase in oil prices and non-supply of gas.
Power generation by natural gas is about Rs6 KWh as compared to Rs14.5 KWh by furnace oil. In the last five years natural gas allocation for power has been reduced from 53 per cent to 27 per cent and furnace oil use in power generation has increased from 17 per cent to 38 per cent. This has increased the cost of generation by Rs130bn in 2010, raising circular debt leading to higher power rates.
The power crisis can be alleviated by reallocating gas towards power production and reducing the supply to the transport sector temporarily as power production must take precedence over other sectors. Meanwhile, LNG should be imported on an urgent basis for the CNG sector.
Owing to appointments of unqualified people in the oil and gas sector natural gas output has remained static.
Moreover, measures must be taken to settle all litigation so that gas can be brought into the national supply network.
The government does not realize the frustration of the people. Moreover, the problem of our country has never been the lack of natural resources, but our only problem is lack of sincere leadership. Pakistan is facing social and economic challenges. Civil society should give suggestions for solution of national problems and promote a culture of equitable use of resources. Only by adopting serious attitude we can solve the power problems and take Pakistan out of this power crisis. Above mentioned solutions of power crisis are most practical.S.A. KHOKHAR Lahore (Dawn.com.pk)
