RICE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION TRENDS IN NEGROS ORIENTALByJulhusin B. Jali san Introduction Negros Oriental, endowed with a healthy agricultural climate, is haven to skillful and hardworking farmers who for ages have nurtured and enriched the province’s soil, giving birth to a paradise of abounding farm and plantation. With agriculture as the lifeblood of its economy, about 56 percent of its total land area have been cultivated as agricultural lands, with approximately five percent are utilized for the production of play (Provincial Development and Investment Plan, 2002).
Through struggling years of treading the land with ardor and dedication borne out of the farmers’ intensive labor, rice production remains the key source of livelihood and sustenance of its constituents, especially the rural folks who are fundamentally dependent on agronomic yield. While the province of Negros Oriental has not experienced any acute food shortage, one of the concerns of the policy-makers has been to attain sufficiency in food supply particularly rice. However, it has been observed that the rice industry has not been able to effectively tap its potentials and meet the increasing demands of the growing population.
This inability to effectively close the gap between the demand for all supply of rice has been the reason for resorting to importation. Considering the above premises, there is therefore a need for a study on the prevailing conditions of rice production in the province. Review of Related Literature and Studies The touchstone thinking on the adequacy of the food supply goes back to the time of Malthus, a British economist of the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries (1766-1843).
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Malthus observed that food resources increase by the process of addition — that is, by arithmetic progression — but that population increases by multiplication, or in geometric progression. He further observed that population inevitably increases up to the limits of subsistence. This led him to conclude that the pressure of overcrowding populations upon which the means of subsistence must ultimately bring misery and degradation (Hughes 8).
Current trends seem to support the Malthusian theory. It can be seen from here that despite with the great strides in science and technology, the world has reached the age where population growth has outpaced food production. The Agriculture Magazine, in its September 1998 issue, reported that millions of people in the least developed nations go hungry each day because population is growing at 2. 8 percent a year. If they continue to grow at this rate, their population will double in 24 years. Role of the National Food Authority At the heart of the country’s food security policies is the National Food Authority (NFA).
But with the way the food agency has performed in the past, there is clearly a need for the government policymakers to rethink the role of this institution. In a study conducted by the Congressional Planning and Budget Office (C PBO), the following findings have been unveiled as among the basic weaknesses of the NFA’s programs (Debuque, Aug. 25, 1999): Greater benefits to rice consumers rather than play farmers. Data from 1992 to 1996 reveal that farmers get only eight percent of NFA subsidies compared to about 92 percent received by consumers. Inability to influence farm gate prices. Statistics show that despite the NFA’s paddy procurement in the years 1995 to 1998, its support prices fell below actual play prices.
The support price was fixed at P 8. 00 per kilo in 1996 while farm gate prices averaged at P 8. 20 per kilo. Low and declining buying levels. From 1975 to 1996, the NFA procured a yearly average of just five percent of total play production, and was able to exceed its target procurement level only in 1990. Persistent delays in procurement.
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The NFA usually buys one or two months after the peak season such that it is the richer farmers or the traders – those with storage capabilities or access to post-harvest facilities – who take advantage of the agency’s support price. Other studies have, in the same vein, emphasized how delays in NFA procurement as well as the arrival of rice imports worsened fluctuations in play and rice prices. Factors Influencing Productivity Kimpo, in her study conducted in Pigcawayan, Cotabato in 1963, listed the following as among the vital factors influencing rice production output: managerial factors, application of modern technique, proper care of farm, size of the family, farmer association, credit facilities, and institutional factors. The study conducted by Lu in 1973 about the rice-producing provinces of Laguna, Quezon, Cavite, Rizal, Nueva Eci ja and Bula can, revealed that farm-level implementation of rice production program is more likely to take place if: credit facilities are available; the price of play sold at the farm is favorable; the farmers belong to the older age group; the farmer’s level of educational attainment is relatively high; and the size the farm holding is relatively high.
The same study also revealed that awareness on the part of the farmers of the national agricultural programs and the presence of extension services of the government are crucial for the implementation of these programs at the farm level. Objective of the Study This study aimed to describe the production and consumption trends of rice in Negros Oriental during the period from 2000 to 2003 as well as to forecast production levels vis-‘a-vis the consumption requirements from 2005 to 2007. Significance of the Study The importance of any study in food production need not be overemphasized especially if it is about a staple food like rice. Rice is the most important crop not only in the province of Negros Oriental but in the entire country.
Rice and corn are staple foods of most Filipinos. Fifty-six percent of the population of the province is rice eating according to the Food Consumption Survey conducted by the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics. The findings and recommendations of this study can provide the local government planners and agricultural technicians with deeper insights on the existing conditions of the rice farms. It could also serve as an important input in the development of strategies and thrusts towards attaining the government’s goal of ascertaining sufficient supply of rice and consequently alleviating the socio-economic well being of the countryside. More importantly, the study will create awareness and understanding on the part of the consuming public regarding the prevailing and future situations of rice industry particularly the level of supply vis-‘a-vis the consumption requirements of the province. It will provide them the idea when to utilize food substitute in the event of acute shortage.
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The researcher also hopes that this endeavor will serve as a useful reference for students and researchers. Scope and Limitations of the Study The study focuses on the trends and outlook relative to food sufficiency. The time frame for this study is the first four years of the present century (2000-2003).
However, since the study involved trend and outlook, the researcher attempted to forecast the province’s future (2005-2007) levels of production vis-‘a-vis the increasing population. Due to the nature of the study, all the data that utilized in the various analyses were secondary and taken from the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics. However, the researcher is confident on the reliability and validity of the data considering that those involved in the collection and validation are trained government statisticians.
This study delves statistically on the problems presented. The technical aspect and ecological factors are not covered. Considering the above limitations, the readers are cautioned from interpreting the findings of the study as extremities. Definition of Terms To make this research study more understandable to those who might come across it, the terms below have been included to enable readers to have a clearer insight of the study. Cropland area refers to the actual measurement of the farm from which the agricultural crop is harvested. It is the absolute area devoted to crop production.
Cropping index is a measure of the intensity of land use pattern. It is used to measure the degree of intensity of land use among farmers. Effective area refers to the totality of the area devoted to main crops, double crops and intercrop’s during one calendar year. It is another measure of farm size indicating the area planted to different crops for a fixed period of time. Palay is a Filipino word which means rough rice or unmilled rice. Consumption index measures the movement or changes in the consumption pattern of a food commodity relative to a specified base year.
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Production index measures the relative changes in production of agricultural commodities in a given year compared to the base year. Sufficiency refers to the extent of domestic production in relation to domestic consumption. Volume of production is the physical quantity of the crops produced or harvested within a specific area planted. Yield pertains to the production / output per hectare of the crops. Research Methodology Type of Research In order to attain the objective of the study, the researcher used the descriptive research method in order to “describe the nature of the situation as it exists at the time of the study” (Travers).
Specifically, due to the nature of the study, the researcher employed documentary analysis, a type of descriptive research which is employed if the study involves gathering of information by examining records and documents (Sevilla 108).
Research Environment Negros Oriental, which is one of the four provinces in Central Visayas (Region 7), is the setting of the study. It is the most southerly of the Visayan provinces occupying the southern lobe of the island of Negros. The total population of the province as of the year 2000 was 1, 130, 088. The population grew at an average annual growth rate of 2. 11 percent during the period 1995-2000.
Negros Oriental is overwhelmingly agricultural, with the bulk of its economic activities revolving around the cultivation of the land and the exploitation of the fishery resources of the province. This is substantiated by the fact that about 61 percent of the 1995 total labor force in the province are engaged in agriculture, fishery, and forestry sub-sectors (Provincial Development and Investment Plan, 1998-2002).
The province’s plantation areas are predominantly commercial crops like sugar and coconut. Sugar mills, rice mills and other post-harvest facilities are also located in leading agricultural areas of the province. Data Gathering Procedure Most of the data utilized in the various analyses herein were gathered from the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS), the government agency tasked to collect statistical data for agricultural crops, fisheries, livestock and poultry. Among these data are the following: 1.
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Volume of production for irrigated and non-irrigated play farms covering the period 2000-2003; 2. Effective area for all types of play and corn crops; and 3. Per capita consumption of rice. The researcher also referred to the Census of Agriculture Final Report as well as the Census of Population Report for other important data relative to both agriculture and population estimates. Copies of these reports are available at the National Statistics Office, Dumaguete City.
Statistical Treatment of Data Apropos to the descriptive tabular presentation of various data, play farms were classified as irrigated or rain fed. According to the definition of BAS, rain fed farms consist of all non-irrigated farms from lowland to upland areas. The following formulas (BAS 83) were used in the evaluation of play production: Yield = Volume of Production in metric tonnes x 100 Area in hectares Cropping Index = Effective Crop Area x 100 Cropland Area Production Index = Value during the Current Year x 100 Value during the base year Annual Growth Rate = Index No. (1999) – Index No. (1995) 4 For the purpose of determining the trends and outlook relative to the issue of food sufficiency, population data were projected based on the Malthusian theory (Hughes 43) that the population increases at an exponential rate. In mathematical form, the theory is expressed as follows: F = P (1 + g/100) n where: F = population at any year following 2000 P = population in 2000 i = growth rate in percent n = year To estimate the human consumption requirements for any year, the population during the year under consideration was multiplied by the corresponding per capita consumption.
This was done for both rice and corn. The sufficiency of the rice and corn production during the period under study was determined based on the following: Quantity for Seeds = 2. 6% of Total Palay Production 1. 5% of Total Corn Production Feeds & Waste = 6. 5% of Total Palay Production 7. 5% of Total Corn Production Quantity for Food Unmilled = total production – (Quantity for Seeds + Feeds & Waste) Milled = Unmilled 0.
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65 Percent Sufficiency = Quantity for Food (milled) x 100 Consumption Requirement In describing the trends as well as in forecasting future levels of rice and corn production, the researcher considered five commonly used forecasting methods, namely: 1. Arithmetic Straight Line Method (DAP 14) 2. Geometric Method (NEDA 78) 3. Linear Regression (NEDA 86) 4. Logarithmic or Exponential Method (NEDA 87) 5.
Parabolic Curve (Shao 671) The above methods were fitted to production data by calculating the standard error of estimate for each method. The logarithmic model was selected after it yielded the least error for both crops. Presentation, Analysis and Interpretation of Data Effective Crop Area The total effective area for all types of play farms in 2003 was 20, 800 hectares. However, this represents only a mere 0. 5 percent improvement from the effective area of 20, 698 hectares in 2000. Although irrigated farms comprised about 77 percent of this area in 2003 with 15, 960 hectares, no remarkable increase was recorded from 2000.
The situation is almost parallel with the rain fed farms which only increased by 1. 5 percent from 4, 768 hectares in 2000 to only 4, 840 hectares in 2003 (Table 1).
Volume of Production Palay production in 2003 reached 56, 316 metric tonnes. This volume was harvested from an area of 20, 800 hectares resulting in an average yield of 2.
76 metric tonnes per hectare, equivalent to 55 sacks of 50-kilogram content. The 2003 play output was less than the 2000 production of 56, 714 metric tonnes (2. 74 metric tonnes per hectare).
Irrigated fields contributed the bulk of the play production in 2003, which reached 47, 505 metric tonnes (2. 98 metric tonnes per hectare) or 84 percent of the total production while the remaining 16 percent or 9, 811 metric tonnes were derived from the rain fed areas. In 2000, an estimated basic area of 9, 789 hectares was under irrigation where productivity was calculated at 2.
98 metric tonnes per hectare. The yield from irrigated rice lands was considerably higher than those obtained from the less productive rain fed areas which averaged 1. 95 metric tonnes per hectare (Table 1).
Table 1 ANNUAL PALAY PRODUCTION BY FARM TYPE 2000-2003 All Types Irrigated Rained Production Effective Yield Production Effective Yield Production Effective Yield Year Area Area Area (MT) (ha) (MT/ha) (MT) (ha) (MT/ha) (MT) (ha) (MT/ha) 2000 56, 714 20, 698 2. 74 47, 410 15, 930 2. 98 9, 304 4, 768 1.
952001 58, 984 21, 210 2. 78 48, 622 16, 255 2. 99 10, 362 4, 955 2. 092002 56, 249 20, 498 2. 74 46, 482 15, 700 2. 96 9, 767 4, 798 2.
042003 57316 50, 800 2. 76 47, 505 15, 960 2. 98 9, 811 4, 840 2. 03 The above findings clearly manifest that the government officials involved in the implementation of the various agricultural modernization programs, especially the provision for irrigation facilities, fared very badly during the period under study. Production/Consumption Trends It has been said that economic progress is a race between two powers, the power to increase population and the power to increase production.
If the power of population exceed that of production, per capita production is lowered. Ideally, production should increase at a more rapid rate than population. The fluctuating trend in play production discussed earlier strongly manifests that the efforts of both the government and the private sectors have not been adequate to attain self-sufficiency in rice and corn, and that the various agricultural programs for increased productivity were not making any headway. Rice production continued to lag behind the demand. The demand for rice has increased as a result of population growth and marked shift in human consumption from corn to rice. The total population of the province of Negros Oriental per 2000 Census of Population is 1, 130, 088.
During the period 1995-2000, the said population figure increased at an annual rate of 2. 11 percent. If this trend continues, the total population is expected to reach 1, 307, 947 persons by the year 2007 (Table 2).
Way back in the early 80’s, 80 percent of the province’s constituents then were corn eating while only 20 percent were rice eating. However, the latest result of the Food Consumption Survey conducted by BAS reveals that 56 percent of the population now are rice-eaters and the remaining 44 percent are corn-eaters. Table 2 ESTIMATED POPULATION OF NEGROS ORIENTAL 2000-2007 Year Population Year Population 2000 1, 130, 088 2004 1, 228, 5292001 1, 153, 933 2005 1, 254, 4512002 1, 178, 281 2006 1, 280, 9202003 1, 203, 143 2007 1, 307, 947 The production and consumption accounts for rice in the province of Negros Oriental are presented in Table 3.
The researcher, in trying to come up with an acceptable estimate of the quantity of play that will be available for human consumption, adopted the same method that the BAS central office has been using. The consumption requirement for rice as reflected in the said table is derived based on the annual per capita consumption estimate of 66. 95 kilograms. Table 3 RICE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION ACCOUNTS 2000-2004 Year Item 2000 2001 2002 2003 Total Production (MT) 56, 714 58, 984 56, 249 57316 Production Index 100. 00 104.
00 99, 18 101. 06 Utilization (MT) Seeds 1, 475 1, 534 1, 462 1, 490 Feeds and Waste 3, 686 3, 834 3, 656 3, 726 Quantity for Food (unmilled) 51, 553 53, 616 51, 131 52, 100 Quantity for Food (milled) 33, 509 34, 850 33, 235 33, 865 Consumption Requirement (MT) 75, 659 77, 256 78, 886 80, 550 Consumption Index 100. 00 102. 11 104. 26 106. 46 Surplus (Shortage), MT (42, 150) (42, 406) (45, 651) (46, 685) % Sufficiency 44.
29 45. 11 42. 13 42. 04 Based on a per capita consumption estimate of 66. 95 kg / year .
Table 3 indicates that in 2000, the total requirements for rice exceeded production by 42, 150 metric tonnes. Based on this, the province could be regarded as only 44. 29 percent sufficient in rice, which necessitates more importation of rice from other provinces. While the consumption requirement is on the upward trend as shown by the increasing consumption index, the same cannot be said of the total production. During the period 2000 to 2003, the consumption requirement grew by almost six percent as a consequence of population growth, while production grew only by a mere one percent during the period. In 2003, the province was only sufficient by a measly 42.
04 percent with a shortage of 46, 685 metric tonnes. Food Sufficiency Outlook As previously discussed all productivity indicators point to a very bleak future considering the fluctuating trends in play production. The only positive outlook is the increase in the cropland area, according to BAS record. However, it is not possible to continuously expand farmlands to increase production due to population growth and rapidly widening urban centers. In view of the above premise, and unless the government realizes that a shot in the arm, so to speak, is imperative to arrest the said production trends, the province will remain deficient in rice. Table 4 presents the production and utilization forecast for the years 2004 to 2007.
Table 4 RICE: PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION FORECAST 2004-2007 Year Item 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total Production (MT) 57, 516 57, 027 57, 286 57, 286 Production Index 100. 00 99. 14 99. 60 99. 58 Utilization (MT) Seeds 1, 495 1, 483 1, 489 1, 489 Feeds and Waste 3, 738 3, 707 3, 724 3, 724 Quantity for Food (unmilled) 52, 283 51, 837 52, 073 52, 073 Quantity for Food (milled) 33, 984 33, 694 33, 847 33, 847 Consumption Requirement (MT) 82, 250 83, 985 85, 758 87, 567 Consumption Index 100.
00 102. 11 104. 26 106. 46 Surplus (Shortage), MT (48, 266) (50, 291) (51, 911) (53, 720) % Sufficiency 41. 32 40. 12 39.
47 38. 65 Based on a per capita consumption estimate of 66. 95 kg / year . As shown in Table 4, the total play production for the year 2007 will be approximately 57, 276 metric tonnes, or a total decrease of 0. 42 percent relative to the estimated production during the year 2004. Out of this amount, however, only 33, 847 metric tonnes will be available for food.
But with an estimated consumption requirement of 87, 567 metric tonnes, the province will have a deficit of 53, 720 metric tonnes. This means that the province will only be 38. 65 percent sufficient. The trends seem to confirm the theory of Robert T.
Malthus, as cited in the related literature, considering that the consumption requirement has outpaced the production of rice. Conclusions and Implications After due consideration of the vital findings of this study, the following conclusions are hereby drawn: 1. no mark improvement in the effective area recorded during the period 2000-2003; 2. production levels have not been sufficient to meet the demand of the fast increasing population; and 3. production outputs will continue to lag behind the demand in the next three years. On the basis of the above findings and conclusions, the agricultural sector in the province has not been effective, to put it euphemistically, in keeping with its avowed goal to increase productivity and ensure food security for its constituents during the period from 2000 to 2003.
Unless the government will give the agricultural sector its much-needed shot in the arm, so to speak, the province will continue to rely on importation in order to meet the increasing consumption requirements. Compounding the problem is the observed irrational conversion of agricultural lands into residential lots and recreational facilities. As a consequence, the farmers are deprived of additional hectares of land to cultivate that could ultimately help ensure food security for the province. The government is likewise a failure in addressing the poverty situation among farmers. It has already been established that majority of those living below the poverty line are farmers.
Yet, many of these farmers could hardly qualify in borrowing money from government financial institutions because of the very conservative loan policies of the government. As a result, those without collateral had to resort to loan sharks. The presence of LBP-financed cooperatives has somehow helped the farmers in their economic endeavor, but these cooperatives charge them with exorbitant interest rates. Moreover, the failure of the government to increase the purchasing powers of the farmers by raising the support prices for rice and its insistence on cheap food policy has been detrimental in the farmers’ bid to escape from the labyrinth of perpetual poverty. Recommendations Cognizant with the important findings of this inquiry, together with the conclusions and implications derived therefrom, the subsequent recommendations are hereby proffered. 1.
Hasten the implementation of the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program and optimize utilization of lands suitable for agricultural production. This is addressed to the Department of Agrarian Reform (DAR).
2. Conduct an extensive and periodic training on modern agricultural technology especially organic farming and biological pest control to offset high cost of agricultural inputs. In line with this, demonstration farms should also be established. This is addressed to all Municipal Agricultural Offices (MAO).
3. There should be better employment of farm resources. This can be achieved by conducting re-orientation seminar on how to determine the optimum amount of farm inputs to be used. This is addressed to the Department of Agriculture (DA) 4.
There should be liberalization of the requirements for loan packages provided by government lending institutions by allowing payments in kind for outstanding loans. This is addressed to the Land Bank of the Philippines (LBP) and the Department of Agriculture (DA).
5. In order to attain self-sufficiency in rice for human consumption, the Department of Health (DOH) should intensify the implementation of various family planning programs to cut down the province’s population growth rate. Works Cited ” Biotechnology to Play Big Role,” Agriculture Monthly Magazine. September, 1998.
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Agricultural Indicators System. Quezon City: Department of Agriculture, 1996. Debuque, Margarita H. Philippine Daily Inquirer. August 25, 1999.
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Hughes, Harold D. and Darrel S. Metcalfe. Crop Production. New York: MacMillan Publishing Co. , Inc.
, 1972. Kimpo, Eva. “Changes in Rice Farming in Selected Areas of Asia: Pigcawayan, Cotabato, Philippines.” International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, Laguna, 1962. Lu, Hsueh-yi.
“Some Socio-Economic Factors Affecting the Implementation at the Farm Level of a Rice Production Program in the Philippines,” 1973. Project Development Manual. Manila: National Economic Development Authority (NEDA), 1984. Shao, Stephen P.
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