KEY MESSAGES ON THE PRESENT SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN
I. Overall Situation
Afghanistan has just successfully completed its constitutional loya jirga. While this three-week process
was at times difficult, and the product imperfect, the drafting of a new constitution is an important landmark.
The next major step in Afghanistan’s transition will be elections, with at least presidential elections likely to
be held before September 2004. While there is a new sense of hope in Afghanistan, there is also a growing
understanding of just how massive a challenge the economic and political reconstruction of the country is.
The two biggest concerns of Afghans and their international allies are: a) continuing security problems,
particularly outside of Kabul; and b) a fear that the international community will lose interest in Afghanistan
before the country’s reconstruction achieves sustainable forward momentum.
Key Messages:
1) The task of building a stable Afghanistan is a massive challenge. Success is vital for both the welfare
of the Afghan people and the security of the region.
2) While significant progress has been made on numerous fronts since the collapse of the Taliban,
success is not yet inevitable. In particular, continuing insecurity, especially outside of Kabul,
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constitutes a threat to both economic reconstruction and the holding of free and fair elections.
3) It is thus vital that the international community provide focused support to the Afghan people for a
period of at least 5-10 years. It is vital that this effort be truly multilateral, with the active and
cohesive participation of European, American regional and other actors.
II. Security
The current security situation in Afghanistan is uneven, which poses significant obstacles to
reconstruction, as well as voter registration and elections. In 2003, there was a significant increase in attacks
on both aid workers and representatives of the Afghan government. In general, security in Kabul is better than
elsewhere, thanks to ISAF/NATO, but even Kabul is dangerous as seen in suicide bombing attacks against
German, Canadian and British ISAF forces. Beyond the threat of extremist elements opposed to the Karzai
government and the large number of militias operating outside the government’s control, the greatest threat
to Afghanistan’s future stability is the production and processing of opium poppies, which has now spread to
28 of the country’s 32 provinces.
A. Afghan Solutions
There is universal agreement that the solution to Afghanistan’s security problems must be led by
Afghans and rooted in Afghan realities. However, it is very clear that the transitional Afghan government
currently lacks the necessary capacity and cannot ensure the country’s security without the support of the
international community. International efforts to date to address the most pressing security concerns and
build Afghan security capacity have been inadequate and must be accelerated going forward. The most critical
areas of intervention in the security arena are : 1) Training of the police and the Afghan National Army (ANA).
The training of the forces continues to advance slowly and drop-out rates are high. Currently the ANA has only
5.000-7,000 soldiers under its control, far fewer than the leading warlords ; 2) In parallel, progress to date in
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the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) program is also slow. To speed up this process,
Coalition forces should end their reliance on militias to support their operations, and more opportunities must
be provided for both men and women to increase family incomes through other means ; and 3) More attention
and resources must be focused on the drug economy, which now constitutes nearly half of the national
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economy. Such efforts should focus less on small farmers involved in poppy production and more on those
involved in the processing and smuggling of opium.
B. Role of the International Community
Afghans are a proud people, with a long history of opposing foreign military occupation. They are also
a people exhausted by nearly 25 years of non-stop conflict. Most Afghan appear to accept, and even support, a
temporary role for international forces in Afghanistan, provided that they are seen as serving Afghan interests
rather than pursuing an open-ended occupation. The current foreign military presence in Afghanistan consists
of the international security Assistance Force (ISAF) under NATO command and U.S.-led Coalition forces.
1. U.S.-Led Coalition
The U.S.-led Coalition forces that unseated the Taliban in 2001 continue to maintain a significant
(10.000+) presence in Afghanistan. In addition to regular operations against Taliban and Al Qaeda remnants,
these forces have undertaken reconstruction activities through Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs).
The
manner in which soldiers have mixed combat, intelligence, and “humanitarian” actions has been a concern of
the civilian humanitarian community from the outset of the conflict, given the potential impact on the
perceived independence and impartiality of genuine humanitarian action in the eyes of Afghan communities.
As Coalition forces begin a significant expansion of PRTs in the south and east of Afghanistan, CARE and others in
the NGO community urge all foreign military forces in Afghanistan to focus on building Afghan capacity in the
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security sector and to leave reconstruction activities to the Afghan government, NGOs, UN and other civilian
actors.
2. ISAF/NATO
ISAF was established shortly after the Bonn agreement, and, since January 2002, it has played an
important role in stabilizing the capital, creating the conditions for significant reconstruction and progress in
the political process. Many Afghan refugees have “voted with their feet”, more than doubling the capital’s
population in the past two years. NATO assumed command of ISAF in August 2003. Shortly thereafter, the UN
Security Council authorized an expansion of ISAF’s mandate beyond Kabul. NATO is currently undertaking
intensive consultation in Kabul, Brussels, and other world capitals on how to implement its expanded
mandate. One model being explored for ISAF expansion beyond Kabul consists of Provincial Reconstruction (or
Security) Teams. Such teams are currently led in various parts of Afghanistan by British, American, German and
New Zealand forces. Among those governments reported to have expressed interest in supporting ISAF
expansion beyond Kabul are those of Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Finland, France, Hungary, Italy, Korea,
Norway, Switzerland, and Sweden. The major constraint on ISAF expansion at present is the difficulty that
NATO is experiencing in obtaining adequate contributions of funds, troops and equipment from its members
and other governments.
Key Messages:
1) Current security conditions in Afghanistan are uneven. In a number of areas outside of Kabul,
security is inadequate to allow reconstruction to proceed rapidly or to create favourable conditions for free
and fair elections. Terrorist elements, warlord militias, and the drug trade all pose threats to Afghan security.
2) The long-term solution to Afghan security is adequate police and army capacity under the control
of the Afghan state. Current progress in police training, army training and disarmament efforts is inadequate
and must be accelerated.
3) Properly deployed in support of building Afghan security sector capacity, international military
forces can play an important short-term role in stabilizing Afghanistan until it has the capacity to ensure its
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In the wake of the Cold War, a host of what have been loosely termed "new security" challenges have become the focus of growing concern worldwide. These challenges have defined changed priorities forcing the reconsideration of the traditional concept of security that is no longer focused on a bipolar world, but rather accounts for a spectrum of challenges that have a demonstrated capacity to ...
own security.
4) International military forces should focus on their area of expertise in improving security and
should not blur the distinction between military and humanitarian action in Afghanistan. Humanitarian and
reconstruction efforts should be the domain of civilian actors, except where needy populations can only be
reached by military actors.
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III. Reconstruction
Along with security, adequate investment in reconstruction is vital to a stable Afghanistan. Shortly
after the collapse of the Taliban, international donors committed roughly US$5 billion for Afghan
reconstruction. For some time, the Afghan Government has been making the case that significantly more
resources would be required over a period of 5-10 years. With the assistance of the World Bank and other
international institutions, the Afghan Government has just completed a “recosting” exercise to establish the
cost of Afghan reconstruction over 3, 6 and 12 year time frames. The “price tag” emerging from this new
needs assessment is roughly $28 billion over the next 7 year, or an average of $4 billion per year. While the
Afghan Minister of Finance acknowledges that this is a lot of money, he makes the case that this is what is
required to achieve the central goal of building a state that can provide for the stability and a minimum level of
prosperity for the Afghan people. “Prosperity” in the Afghan context is defined as a per capita annual income
of just $500 in ten years, universal primary education and annual health expenditures of less than $5 per
person. These quite modest objectives will be achieved by implementing a private sector-led strategy to
achieve annual economic growth of 9%.
The next critical event in efforts by the Afghan Government to mobilize the required resources is a major
donor conference, which is expected to take place in Berlin on March 8-9. The major goals of this conference,
in addition to increasing the total amount of resources committed to Afghan reconstruction, should be : 1)
Every effort should be made to make Afghanistan a success for genuine multilateralism. For this goal to be
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Afghanistan, often called the crossroads of Central Asia, has had a turbulent history. Through the ages, Afghanistan has been occupied by many forces. A separate Afghan nation came into existence in 1746 as the Durrant Empire, but control was ceded to the United Kingdom until King Amanullah acceded to throne in 1919. Since then, the country has known many governments and several civil wars. The ...
realized, recent increases in U.S. Government financial commitments to Afghan reconstruction should be
complemented by new resources from Europe, Japan, neighbouring and Gulf countries, and international
financial institutions. The U.S. Government, for its part, should not seek to unilaterally control international
support for Afghan reconstruction and security; 2) For the Afghan Government to make best use of
international investments in Afghanistan; donors should make those flows more predictable by making multiyear
financial commitments to the maximum possible extent; and 3) The Afghan state recognizes that it
currently lacks sufficient capacity to effectively manage the country’s reconstruction. Increased investments in
capacity-building and accountability are vital to ensure the professional and transparent management of the
international community’s investments in Afghanistan.
Key messages:
1. Significant increases in financial support from the international community will be required to
achieve the central goal of building a stable Afghanistan that protects the rights of its citizens and
does not pose an international security threat.
2. Support for Afghan reconstruction should be seen not as charity, but rather as an investment that
also serves the long-term interest of the larger international community.
3. The upcoming donor conference in Berlin in March is an important opportunity for the international
community to demonstrate its solidarity with the Afghan people. To the maximum extent possible,
commitments should be made on a multi-year basis.
4. In return for its investment in Afghanistan, the international community is entitled to transparency
and accountability from the Afghan Government. Efforts to build the capacity of the Afghan state, at
central, provincial, and district levels must be expanded and accelerated.
IV. Preparations for Elections
The next major milestone in Afghanistan’s transition is national elections. With the adoption of a new
constitution completed, all eyes are focused on whether election can be held by June 2004, as envisaged in
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the Bonn process. The election process being organized by the United Nations, which has been criticised in
certain quarters for slow progress in voter registration. For its part, the UN points out that, to date, it has
only received $40 million of the $78 million required from donors to support the election process. The lack of
recent census data makes voter registration difficult. Given a national population of 20-25 million, the UN
estimates a total of up to 10 million eligible voters over the age of 18. To date, registration has only begun in
regional centers, and nearly 630,000 voters had registered as of the end of January. Starting February 1,
registration is supposed to be expand to provincial capitals. Of those registered to date, 22 % are female.
Females represent from 13-17 % of the total in Gardez, Kandahar, Jalalabad, and Kunduz to highs of 42 % in
the Central Highlands and 33 % in Heart. Surprisingly, only 200,000 voters have registered to date in Kabul
(21 % female), and many voters reportedly are still unaware of where to register.
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On the whole, the registration process appears now to be developing some momentum, but the
feasibility of registering the great majority of the eligible population by June 2004 remains very much in
doubt. President Karzai and many members of his government appear to be pushing for elections by June,
after which their Bonn mandate expires. Certainly, the American Government is pressing for elections by June.
Although formal decisions have yet to be announced, the emerging consensus in Kabul seems to be that
presidential elections are feasible in the June-September 2004 timeframe. While some continue to press for
simultaneous parliamentary elections, most observers believe that such elections are technically infeasible
until some time in 2005. Whether elections are not just technically feasible, but also desirable, is still the
subject of considerable debate. Some believe that security and political conditions are not right for elections,
while others fear a loss of momentum from delayed voting.
Key Messages:
1. Elections represent an extremely important step for Afghanistan. While it would be desirable to
adhere to the Bonn timetable for elections, the quality and credibility of the elections is more
important for the future of Afghanistan than the precise date of elections.
2. Currently, voter registration is behind schedule. The UN should make every effort to speed up the
registration process, paying close attention to women’s participation. Donors should provide the UN
with the required financial and human resources.